Decomposition and Scenario Analysis of Factors Influencing Carbon Emissions: A Case Study of Jiangsu Province, China

文献类型： 外文期刊

第一作者： Cheng, An

作者： Cheng, An;Jiang, Guogang;Cheng, An;Jiang, Guogang;Han, Xinru

作者机构：

关键词： CO2 emissions; energy intensity; energy structure; LMDI method; STIRPAT model

期刊名称：SUSTAINABILITY （ 影响因子：3.9； 五年影响因子：4.0 ）

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年卷期： 2023 年 15 卷 8 期

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收录情况： SCI

摘要： It is crucial for China to take the characteristics and development stage of every province in the region into account in order to achieve the "dual carbon" development goal. Using data collected from 2000 to 2019, this study identifies the factors that influence carbon emissions using the logarithmic mean Divisia index (LMDI) method and establishes a revised stochastic impacts by regression on population, affluence, and technology (STIRPAT) model to investigate the effects of four key factors on carbon emissions in Jiangsu province: population size, economic output, energy intensity, and energy structure. The following conclusions were drawn: (1) energy intensity contributes to a slowed rate of carbon emission production in Jiangsu, whereas population size, economic output, and energy structure contribute to a pulling effect; (2) under different scenarios, Jiangsu's carbon dioxide emissions peak at different times and reach different values; and (3) two low-carbon scenarios are more in line with the current development situation and future policy orientation of Jiangsu Province and are therefore better choices. Our policy recommendations are as follows: (1) the development of economic and social activities should be coordinated and greenhouse gas emissions should be reduced; (2) the province's energy structure should be transformed and upgraded by taking advantage of the "dual carbon" development model; and (3) regionally-differentiated carbon emission reduction policies should be developed.

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