Parallel crop planning based on price forecast

文献类型： 外文期刊

第一作者： Fan, Menghan

作者： Fan, Menghan;Kang, Mengzhen;Wang, Xiujuan;Hua, Jing;Wang, Fei-Yue;Fan, Menghan;Kang, Mengzhen;Wang, Fei-Yue;Wang, Xiujuan;Hua, Jing;He, Chaoxing

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关键词： agent-based modeling; crop planning; parallel agricultural management; price prediction

期刊名称：INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF INTELLIGENT SYSTEMS （ 影响因子：8.709； 五年影响因子：8.161 ）

ISSN： 0884-8173

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收录情况： SCI

摘要： Agrifood system actors operate within diverse sociocultural, economic, and biophysical settings. For growers, crop planning, usually a yearly business plan, is a key decision to make on when, what, and how many to plant. It is a challenging task as it deals with multiple constraints in volatile economic and/or climate environment. Most crop planning models have difficulty in adapting to changing situation. In this study, a parallel system of crop planning composed of the artificial system, computational experiment, and parallel execution is proposed. The farmers are described as agents, and the decision is made based on the heuristic searching of optimal plan; the adaption of plan is triggered autonomously given strong environment changes. Focus is given to economic environment, which is indicated as product price. In a case study, the economic environment of the artificial system is built based on the monthly and weekly price information for 13 products during 7 years. The computational experiment provides the initial cropping plan and harvest time, with social and ecological constraints. Result shows that the cropping plan can further adapt to price variation. This flexible cropping plan system can strengthen the capability of cooperatives serving small-scale farmers.

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