Impact of Extreme Weather Disasters on China's Barley Industry under the Background of Trade Friction-Based on the Partial Equilibrium Model

文献类型： 外文期刊

第一作者： Liu, Jingyi

作者： Liu, Jingyi;Li, Xiande

作者机构：

关键词： trade friction; extreme weather disasters; barley trade; partial equilibrium

期刊名称：FOODS （ 影响因子：5.561； 五年影响因子：5.94 ）

ISSN：

年卷期： 2022 年 11 卷 11 期

页码：

收录情况： SCI

摘要： The world has entered a compound risk era with multiple crises, and the adverse impact of trade friction and extreme weather disasters on China's barley import has become increasingly prominent. In this context, this study uses superimposed epoch analysis and partial equilibrium model to evaluate the impact of extreme weather disasters in China's major barley-exporting countries on China's barley industry in the course of China-Australia trade friction. The results show that: (1) extreme weather disaster caused barley production in France and Canada to decrease by 7.95% and 18.36% respectively; (2) when the two external shocks occur at the same time, China's barley import volume tends to decline compared with the basic scenario, the import price rises sharply, there are certain trade-diverting effects in barley import, and China's imports from countries not affected by extreme weather disasters will increase to a certain extent; (3) China's barley production remains at a low rate of growth and is vulnerable to external shocks, facing certain import risks. This study provides important policy implications for preventing import risks and ensuring the sufficient supply of domestic barley.

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