Simulating the changes of the habitats suitability of chub mackerel ( Scomber japonicus) ) in the high seas of the North Pacific Ocean using ensemble models under medium to long-term future climate scenarios

文献类型： 外文期刊

第一作者： Sun, Yuyan

作者： Sun, Yuyan;Zhang, Heng;Jiang, Keji;Xiang, Delong;Shi, Yongchuang;Huang, Sisi;Li, Yang;Han, Haibin;Sun, Yuyan;Zhang, Heng;Jiang, Keji;Xiang, Delong;Shi, Yongchuang;Huang, Sisi;Li, Yang;Han, Haibin;Sun, Yuyan;Zhang, Heng;Jiang, Keji;Xiang, Delong;Shi, Yongchuang;Huang, Sisi;Li, Yang;Han, Haibin;Sun, Yuyan;Jiang, Keji;Xiang, Delong;Huang, Sisi;Han, Haibin;Li, Yang

作者机构：

关键词： Chub mackerel; Species distribution models (SDMs); Ensemble model; Climate change; Habitat suitability

期刊名称：MARINE POLLUTION BULLETIN （ 影响因子：4.9； 五年影响因子：5.6 ）

ISSN： 0025-326X

年卷期： 2024 年 207 卷

页码：

收录情况： SCI

摘要： Understanding and forecasting changes in marine habitats due to global climate warming is crucial for sustainable fisheries. Using future environmental data provided by Global Climate Models (GCMs) and occurrence records of Chub mackerel in the North Pacific Ocean (2014-2023), we built eight individual models and four ensemble models to simulate current habitat distribution and forecast changes under three future climate scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP5-8.5) for the 2050s and 2100s. Ensemble models outperformed individual ones, with the weighted average algorithm model achieving the highest accuracy (AUC 0.994, TSS 0.929). Sea Surface Temperature (SST) and chlorophyll-a (Chla) significantly influenced habitat distribution. Predictions indicate current high suitability areas for Chub mackerel are concentrated beyond the 200-nautical-mile baseline. Under future climate scenarios, habitat suitability is expected to decline, with a shift towards higher latitudes and deeper waters. High suitability areas will be significantly reduced.

分类号：

  • 相关文献
作者其他论文 更多>>

微信小程序