Potential distribution under climate change and ecological niche differences between Actinidia chinensis complex

文献类型： 外文期刊

第一作者： Wang, Zhi

作者： Wang, Zhi;Zhang, Lei;Wang, Zhi;Li, Zuozhou;Jiang, Quan;Yao, Xiaohong;Meng, Sen;Hu, Guangming

作者机构：

关键词： MaxEnt; Kiwifruit; Cytotypes; Niche differentiation; Climate change

期刊名称：SCIENTIA HORTICULTURAE （ 影响因子：3.9； 五年影响因子：4.3 ）

ISSN： 0304-4238

年卷期： 2024 年 337 卷

页码：

收录情况： SCI

摘要： The Actinidia chinensis complex, the most economically valuable group in Actinidia, are functionally dioecious and ploidy complex liane. The distribution of kiwifruit wild resources endemic to China has garnered significant attention due to its uniqueness. This study utilizes the optimized MaxEnt model based on 179 distribution records and 20 major environmental factors, to forecast the potential suitable distribution areas of three cytotypes of A.chinensis in China under four climate change scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5) for both present and future (2030s, 2050s, 2070s, 2090s) conditions. To identify the most significant environmental factors and response intervals affecting the distribution and ecological differentiation of three cytotypes, the jackknife test, percent contribution, and response curve were employed. Furthermore, multiple R packages were utilized for the niche comparison analysis of these three cytotypes. The findings indicate that the MaxEnt models for all three ploidies exhibit superior prediction accuracy and a reduced risk of overfitting when the optimal model parameter settings are FC=LQ and RM=0.5 or 1. The distribution of three cytotypes was primarily influenced by environmental factors such as precipitation in the driest month, coarse fragment content, and elevation. The threshold ranges for these factors varied among the cytotypes, thereby illustrating the niche differentiation strategies employed by each. The results suggest that the current potential distribution areas for the three cytotypes are predominantly situated in China's subtropical mountainous regions, constituting 11.21 %, 10.46 %, and 15.19 % of the nation's total land area respectively. Under a variety of future climate change scenarios, there will be a varying degree of disappearance and migration within the suitable areas for all three cytotypes, resulting in habitat fragmentation. This study can provide guidance on the introduction of A. chinensis species as well as how to develop, artificially cultivate and conserve resources of each cytotype.

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