Advancing coupling coordination simulation in the social-human-ecological system of the Three Gorges Reservoir Area: A multi-scenario system dynamics approach

文献类型： 外文期刊

第一作者： Cheng, Guo

作者： Cheng, Guo;Li, Guiyuan;He, Yu;Cheng, Guo;Li, Guiyuan;He, Yu;Cheng, Guo;Li, Guiyuan;He, Yu;Pu, Xiangjun;Chen, Chi;Li, Guiyuan

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关键词： System dynamics; Coupling coordination degree; Social-human-ecological system; Three Gorges Reservoir area

期刊名称：ECOLOGICAL INDICATORS （ 影响因子：6.9； 五年影响因子：6.6 ）

ISSN： 1470-160X

年卷期： 2024 年 158 卷

页码：

收录情况： SCI

摘要： Due to the lack of scientific and systematic thinking in the early stages of high-quality urbanisation, the interaction and stress between the social-human-ecological (SHE)1 system intensified, resulting in a series of problems related to the low level of ecological environment and the imbalanced socio-economic development. It is crucial to enhance the safety, health, and well-being of city dwellers, as well as to promote the sustainable development of the region. Based on complex systems science, using the Three Gorges Reservoir Area (TGRA)2 as an instance, this study develops a multidimensional coupling conceptual model of the SHE system, employs the system dynamics (SD)3 method to clarify the SHE system's causal feedback mechanism, and simulates the coupling coordination degree (CCD)4 from 2010 to 2030. Simultaneously, eight scenarios are created to improve the system's CCD by modifying factors. According to historical and sensitivity test findings, the SD model used in this work can effectively represent the SHE system's dynamic coupling and interaction connection. Furthermore, under the comprehensive development scenario that takes into account the protection of the ecological environment, human intelligent regulation, and socio-economic development, the TGRA has the biggest growth in CCD. As a result, raising the policy intensity of a single subsystem is insufficient. Balancing policy implementation for each subsystem is advantageous to improving the coupling coordination of the SHE system in the TGRA. The study is of significant importance for achieving high-quality socio-economic development and sustainable ecological management in the TGRA region.

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