Assessing Net Irrigation Needs in Maize-Wheat Rotation Farmlands on the North China Plain: Implications for Future Climate Scenarios

文献类型： 外文期刊

第一作者： Wu, Yujin

作者： Wu, Yujin;Ren, Chao;Wu, Yujin;Leng, Pei

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关键词： irrigation requirement; AquaCrop; climate change; soil moisture

期刊名称：AGRONOMY-BASEL （ 影响因子：3.3； 五年影响因子：3.7 ）

ISSN：

年卷期： 2024 年 14 卷 6 期

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收录情况： SCI

摘要： Assessment of agricultural water requirements under future climate projections has received increasing attention in recent decades. The agriculture pattern of the semi-arid North China Plain is a maize-wheat rotation system in which sufficient irrigation is required to maintain production. In this study, the effects of future climate scenarios on the net irrigation requirement of the maize-wheat rotation system were assessed using the Food and Agriculture Organization crop growth model-AquaCrop. First, the baseline net irrigation requirement over the study region was obtained through AquaCrop simulation under ERA5-Land reanalysis from 2011 to 2020. In addition, the AquaCrop model was used to predict irrigation requirements in future scenarios (2021-2050) under the extreme-emission scenario of the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway SSP 5-8.5 (SSP 5-8.5). Finally, the predicted irrigation amount for maize and wheat during the period 2021-2050 under SSP 5-8.5 was compared with the baseline to assess the interannual change in irrigation water requirement. Results reveal significant agreement between the AquaCrop-derived daily soil moisture (SM) and a reference SM product with unbiased root mean square differences of 0.03 m3/m3 and 0.04 m3/m3 over maize and wheat, respectively. Furthermore, the median net irrigation requirement is expected to increase by approximately 107 mm (21%) to guarantee optimum yield.

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