Local warming and violent conflict in North and South Sudan

文献类型: 外文期刊

第一作者: Maystadt, Jean-Francois

作者: Maystadt, Jean-Francois;Calderone, Margherita;You, Liangzhi

作者机构:

关键词: Weather shocks;violent conflict;Sudan;disaggregated spatial analysis;pastoralism

期刊名称:JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC GEOGRAPHY ( 影响因子:4.862; 五年影响因子:6.378 )

ISSN: 1468-2702

年卷期: 2015 年 15 卷 3 期

页码:

收录情况: SCI

摘要: Our article contributes to the emerging micro-level strand of the literature on the link between local variations in weather shocks and conflicts by focusing on a pixel-level analysis for North and South Sudan between 1997 and 2009. Temperature anomalies are found to strongly affect the risk of conflict, whereas the risk is expected to magnify in a range of 24-31% in the future under a median scenario. Our analysis also sheds light on the competition over natural resources, in particular water, as the main driver of such relationship in a region where pastoralism constitutes the dominant livelihood.

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