High-resolution assessment of solar radiation and energy potential in China

文献类型： 外文期刊

第一作者： Feng, Yu

作者： Feng, Yu;Zhang, Xueli;Hao, Weiping;Gong, Daozhi;Jia, Yue;Cui, Ningbo;Cui, Ningbo;Li, Hongyu

作者机构：

关键词： Solar radiation; Photovoltaic power; Spatial and temporal patterns; Dimming; Sunshine-based model; Carbon neutrality

期刊名称：ENERGY CONVERSION AND MANAGEMENT （ 影响因子：9.709； 五年影响因子：8.954 ）

ISSN： 0196-8904

年卷期： 2021 年 240 卷

页码：

收录情况： SCI

摘要： Global solar radiation (Rs) is a key parameter for determining the energy yields of solar photovoltaic (PV) systems. However, long-term Rs data are not available in most regions of China, impeding the management and development of PV systems. In this study, a novel model for estimating Rs was developed and coupled with a PV power model and inverse distance weighting model to generate high-resolution Rs and PV power data over China. A large network of observations was used to provide forcing inputs (daily observations from 1961 to 2018, from 2123 meteorological stations). The spatiotemporal patterns of Rs and PV power in China were further quantified. The results indicate that the newly developed Rs model accurately represents the decadal variability of Rs in China during 1961-2018. Annual potential PV power exhibited a significantly decreasing trend from 1961 to 2018, with a significant decrease from 1961 to 1991 (-0.35 +/- 0.06 kWh m- 2 yr- 1, p 0.01) and nonsignificant decrease from 1992 to 2018 (-0.14 +/- 0.12 kWh m- 2 yr- 1, p 0.05). Owing to air quality improvements in the future, the potential PV power may increase over China, leading to large economic benefits. Western China is favored for its abundant PV power, whereas central and eastern China are the least favorable for PV power generation. Thus, the western part of China, with its excellent geographical potential, is an optimal location for the installation of solar PV power plants. Our findings provide practical information to solar energy industries, and can help in energy structure transitions, meeting the energy demand and contributing to carbon neutrality.

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