Pollution threshold assessment and risk area delineation of heavy metals in soils through the finite mixture distribution model and Bayesian maximum entropy theory

文献类型： 外文期刊

第一作者： Fei, Xufeng

作者： Fei, Xufeng;Lou, Zhaohan;Lv, Xiaonan;Ren, Zhouqiao;Fei, Xufeng;Lv, Xiaonan;Ren, Zhouqiao;Xiao, Rui

作者机构：

关键词： Heavy metal; Pollution thresholds; Contamination assessment; Spatial analysis; Risk area detection

期刊名称：JOURNAL OF HAZARDOUS MATERIALS （ 影响因子：13.6； 五年影响因子：12.7 ）

ISSN： 0304-3894

年卷期： 2023 年 452 卷

页码：

收录情况： SCI

摘要： Pollution threshold and high-risk area determination for heavy metals is important for effectively developing pollution control strategies. Based on heavy metal contents in 3627 dense samples, an integrated framework combining the finite mixture distribution model and Bayesian maximum entropy (BME) theory was proposed to assess pollution thresholds, contamination levels and risk areas in an uncertain environment for soil heavy metals. The results showed that the average heavy metal contents were in the order Zn > Cr > Pb > Cu > Ni > As > Cd > Hg, with strong/moderate variation, and the corresponding pollution thresholds were 158.39, 84.29, 47.84, 49.75, 28.95, 18.01, 0.49 and 0.16 mg/kg, respectively. The thresholds were consistently greater than the Zhejiang Province backgrounds but lower than the national risk screening values, except for Cd. Approximately 27.9% of the samples were classified as contaminated at various levels, and they were distributed in the northern, northwestern and eastern regions of the study area. Additionally, 3.73%, 5.34% and 8.22% of the total area were classified as at-risk areas under confidence levels of 95%, 90% and 75%, respectively, through BME theory. The findings provide a reasonable classification system and suggestions for heavy metal pollution management and control.

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