Impacts of Human Activity and Climate Change on the Suitable Habitats for Xanthium spinosum in China

文献类型： 外文期刊

第一作者： Liu, Yabin

作者： Liu, Yabin;Liu, Yabin;Li, Yuyu;Guo, Lizhu;Ji, Yu;Chen, Yihao;Hao, Lifen;Lin, Kejian;Wang, Rui

作者机构：

关键词： biomod2; invasive alien plants; species distribution model; future climate; Xanthium spinosum

期刊名称：PLANTS-BASEL （ 影响因子：4.1； 五年影响因子：4.5 ）

ISSN： 2223-7747

年卷期： 2025 年 14 卷 3 期

页码：

收录情况： SCI

摘要： Xanthium spinosum (X. spinosum) is a highly invasive weed native to South America and distributed in 17 provinces (municipalities) of China. It has severely negative influences on ecosystems, agriculture, and husbandry. However, few studies have reported on the impact of human activity and climate change on the future distribution and centroid shift of X. spinosum. This study aimed to investigate the potential geological distribution of X. spinosum in China, as well as the distribution pattern, centroid shift, and key environmental factors influencing its distribution, under four future climate scenarios (SSP1-26, SSP2-45, SSP3-70, and SSP5-85) based on the biomod2-integrated model. The results indicated that the suitable habitats for X. spinosum would expand in the future, mainly in Inner Mongolia, Northeast China, and the plateau regions (e.g., Xinjiang and Xizang). Under future climate scenarios, the centroid would shift toward the northwest or northeast part of China, with the SSP2-45-2050s scenario showing the maximum shift distance (161.990 km). Additionally, the key environmental variables influencing the distribution of X. spinosum, including human impact index, bio5, bio7, and bio12, were determined, revealing that most of them were related to human activities, temperature, and precipitation. This study enhances the understanding of the influence of human activity and climate change on the geographic range of X. spinosum. It provides references for early warning and management in the control of X. spinosum.

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