Land use and climatic drivers of early 21st-century fire activity in the Amazon

文献类型： 外文期刊

第一作者： Xu, Wenxuan

作者： Xu, Wenxuan;Cen, Jiamin;Fan, Lei;Liu, Yongxue;Liu, Peng;Wu, Wei;Janssen, Thomas A. J.;Veraverbeke, Sander;Veraverbeke, Sander;Janssen, Thomas A. J.;Wang, Libo;Li, Nan

作者机构：

关键词： Fires; Drought; Deforestation; Drivers; Amazon

期刊名称：AGRICULTURAL AND FOREST METEOROLOGY （ 影响因子：5.7； 五年影响因子：6.6 ）

ISSN： 0168-1923

年卷期： 2025 年 372 卷

页码：

收录情况： SCI

摘要： Fire plays a critical role in shaping the Amazon's ecosystem and carbon dynamics, yet the relative contributions of climatic and land-use drivers remain debated. Here, we used 0.5 degrees by 0.5 degrees aggregated satellite-based active fire (AF) data (2002-2020) combined with land-cover change and climate reanalysis datasets to (1) quantify spatiotemporal change of fire patterns, (2) evaluate the interrelationships between drought, deforestation, and fires while comparing the relative contributions of climatic and land-use drivers, and (3) assess the impact of policy interventions on fire incidence. Our findings reveal that, despite a declining trend in overall fire detections, fire activity has shifted from regional concentration to broader dispersion, advancing deeper into the forest interior. While drought anomalies account for approximately 30 % of fire variability, spatial regression analysis highlights the dominant role of deforestation (coefficient=0.67) and farmland expansion (coef-ficient=0.20), compared to drought (coefficient=0.05). Notably, deforestation's contribution to positive fire anomalies declined from similar to 69 % (Phase I: 2004-2008) to similar to 41 % (Phase IV: 2016-2020) of the Action Plan for the Prevention and Control of Deforestation in the Legal Amazon (PPCDAm), reflecting the partial effectiveness of conservation policies in mitigating fire risk. Nevertheless, the persistent interaction among fires, deforestation, and farmland expansion underscores the critical role of human activities in creating ignition-prone landscapes and stimulating fire occurrences. This study demonstrates the compounding effects of climate and land-use changes on Amazonian fire dynamics, and emphasizes the urgent need for integrated land use policies and climate adaptation strategies to address the enduring fire pressures and safeguard the Amazon's carbon stocks and biodiversity.

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