Modeling Adaptive Strategies on Maintaining Wheat-Corn Production and Reducing Net Greenhouse Gas Emissions under Climate Change

文献类型： 外文期刊

第一作者： Yi, Xiaopei

作者： Yi, Xiaopei;Chang, Naijie;Ding, Wuhan;Xu, Chi;Zhang, Jianfeng;Li, Hu;Ding, Wuhan;Zhang, Jing

作者机构：

关键词： wheat-corn; DNDC; climate change; crop yield; net greenhouse effect

期刊名称：AGRICULTURE-BASEL （ 影响因子：3.408； 五年影响因子：3.459 ）

ISSN：

年卷期： 2022 年 12 卷 8 期

页码：

收录情况： SCI

摘要： Climate change has posed serious challenges to food production and sustainable development. We evaluated crop yields, N2O emissions, and soil organic carbon (SOC) in a typical wheat-corn rotation system field on the North China Plain on a 50-year scale using the Denitrification-Decomposition (DNDC) model and proposed adaptive strategies for each climate scenarios. The study showed a good consistency between observations and simulations (R-2 > 0.95 and nRMSE < 30%). Among the twelve climate scenarios, we explored ten management practices under four climate scenarios (3 degrees C temperature change: P/T-3 and P/T+3; 30% precipitation change: 0.7P/T and 1.3P/T), which have a significant impact on crop yields and the net greenhouse effect. The results revealed that changing the crop planting time (CP) and using cold-resistant (CR) varieties could reduce the net greenhouse effect by more than 1/4 without sacrificing crop yields under P/T-3. Straw return (SR) minimized the negative impact on yields and the environment under P/T+3. Fertigation (FG) and Drought-Resistant (DR) varieties reduced the net greenhouse effect by more than 8.34% and maintained yields under 0.7P/T. SR was most beneficial to carbon sequestration, and yields were increased by 3.87% under 1.3P/T. Multiple adaptive strategies should be implemented to balance yields and reduce the environmental burden under future climate change.

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