Future climate change, the agricultural water cycle, and. agricultural production in China

文献类型： 外文期刊

第一作者： Tao, F

作者： Tao, F;Yokozawa, M;Hayashi, Y;Lin, E

作者机构： Chinese Acad Agr Sci, Agrometeorol Inst, Beijing 100081, Peoples R China;Chinese Acad Agr Sci, Agrometeorol Inst, Beijing 100081, Peoples R China; Natl Inst Agroenvironm Sci, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 3058604, Japan

关键词： Climate change;Agricultural water cycle;Water-balance model;Yield;Soil

期刊名称：AGRICULTURE ECOSYSTEMS & ENVIRONMENT （ 2020影响因子：5.567； 五年影响因子：6.064 ）

ISSN：

年卷期：

页码：

收录情况： SCI

摘要： Climate change would have a major impact on the hydrological cycle and consequently on available water resources, the potential for flood and drought, and agricultural productivity. In this study, the impacts of climate change on the agricultural water cycle and their implications for agricultural production in the 2020s were assessed by water-balance calculations for Chinese croplands. Temporal and spatial changes in potential evapotranspiration, actual evapotranspiration, soil-moisture, soil-moisture deficit, yield index, and cropland surface runoff under the baseline climate and a HADCM2 general circulation model (GCM) climate-change scenario were mapped on a grid of 0.5degrees latitude/longitude resolution. According to the analysis, agricultural water demand in south China is projected to decrease generally, and the cropland soil-moisture deficit would decrease due to climate change. However, in north China, agricultural water demand is expected to increase, and the soil-moisture deficit would increase generally. The changes in the water resources would have consequent impacts on the yield index. Cropland surface runoff during the growing period is expected to increase on some sloping croplands in the southwest mountain areas and in some areas along the south coast. These changes would have important implications for agricultural production. Particularly the rain-fed crops in the north China plain and northeast China would face water-related challenges in coming decades due to the expected increases in water demands and soil-moisture deficit,and decreases in precipitation.

分类号： S

  • 相关文献

[1]Short-term water management at early filling stage improves early-season rice performance under high temperature stress in South China. Kong, Leilei,Ashraf, Umair,Cheng, Siren,Rao, Gangshun,Mo, Zhaowen,Tian, Hua,Pan, Shenggang,Tang, Xiangru,Kong, Leilei,Ashraf, Umair,Cheng, Siren,Rao, Gangshun,Mo, Zhaowen,Tian, Hua,Pan, Shenggang,Tang, Xiangru.

[2]Contribution of Drought to Potential Crop Yield Reduction in a Wheat-Maize Rotation Region in the North China Plain. Hu Ya-nan,Xu Yin-long,Pan Jie,Hu Ya-nan,Tang Hua-jun,Liu Ying-jie. 2014

[3]Modelling and predicting crop yield, soil carbon and nitrogen stocks under climate change scenarios with fertiliser management in the North China Plain. Zhang, Xubo,Xu, Minggang,Sun, Nan,Zhang, Xubo,Wu, Lianhai,Xiong, Wei,Huang, Shaomin.

[4]Influence of a heavy rainfall event on the leaching of [C-14]isoproturon and its degradation products in outdoor lysimeters. Doerfler, Ulrike,Cao, Guoyin,Grundmann, Sabine,Schroll, Reiner.

[5]Protective function of narrow grass hedges on soil and water loss on sloping croplands in Northern China. Xiao, Bo,Wang, Qing-hai,Wu, Ju-ying,Huang, Chuan-wei,Yu, Ding-fang,Xiao, Bo.

[6]Earthworms enhanced winter oilseed rape (Brassica napus L.) growth and nitrogen uptake. Zhang, Shujie,Chao, Ying,Zhang, Chunlei,Cheng, Jing,Li, Jun,Ma, Ni.

[7]N, P Contribution and soil adaptability of four arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi. Wenke, Liu.

[8]Comparison of greenhouse gas emissions of chemical fertilizer types in China. Zhan-biao Wang,Jing Chen,Shu-chun Mao,Ying-chun Han,Fu Chen,Li-feng Zhang,Ya-bing Li,Cun-dong Li.

[9]Spatio-temporal responses of cropland phenophases to climate change in Northeast China. Li Zhengguo,Tang Huajun,Yang Peng,Wu Wenbin,Chen Zhongxin,Zhou Qingbo,Zhang Li,Zou Jinqiu,Li Zhengguo,Tang Huajun,Yang Peng,Wu Wenbin,Chen Zhongxin,Zhou Qingbo,Zhang Li,Zou Jinqiu. 2012

[10]Agroclimatic conditions in China under climate change scenarios projected from regional climate models. Tian, Zhan,Liang, Zhuoran,Yang, Xuchao,Yang, Xuchao,Sun, Laixiang,Sun, Laixiang,Fischer, Guenther,Sun, Laixiang,Pan, Jie.

[11]Early eclosion of overwintering cotton bollworm moths from warming temperatures accentuates yield loss in wheat. Ouyang, Fang,Zhang, YongSheng,Fan, Lipeng,Ge, Feng,Hui, Cang,Hui, Cang,Men, XinYuan,Zhang, YongSheng,Shi, Peijian,Zhao, Zihua.

[12]Characterization of Grain Quality and Starch Fine Structure of Two Japonica Rice (Oryza Sativa) Cultivars with Good Sensory Properties at Different Temperatures during the Filling Stage. Zhang, Changquan,Zhou, Lihui,Lu, Huwen,Zhou, Xingzhong,Qan, Yiting,Li, Qianfeng,Lu, Yan,Gu, Minghong,Liu, Qiaoquan,Zhou, Lihui,Zhu, Zhengbin.

[13]Crop Wild Relatives-Undervalued, Underutilized and under Threat?. Ford-Lloyd, Brian V.,Armstrong, Susan J.,Kell, Shelagh P.,Maxted, Nigel,Schmidt, Markus,Barazani, Oz,Hadas, Rivka,Engels, Jan,Hammer, Karl,Khoshbakht, Korous,Kang, Dingming,Li, Yinghui,Qiu, Lijuan,Long, Chunlin,Lu, Bao-Rong,Ma, Keping,Ge, Song,Wei, Wei,Viet Tung Nguyen,Zhang, Zongwen.

[14]Climate change and its impacts on vegetation distribution and net primary productivity of the alpine ecosystem in the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau. Gao, Qingzhu,Ganjurjav, Hasbagen,Li, Yue,Wan, Yunfan,Qin, Xiaobo,Ma, Xin,Liu, Shuo,Gao, Qingzhu,Ganjurjav, Hasbagen,Li, Yue,Wan, Yunfan,Qin, Xiaobo,Ma, Xin,Liu, Shuo,Guo, Yaqi,Guo, Yaqi,Xu, Hongmei.

[15]Adaptation of agriculture to warming in Northeast China. Yang, Xiu,Lin, Erda,Ma, Shiming,Ju, Hui,Guo, Liping,Xiong, Wei,Li, Yue,Xu, Yinlong.

[16]Effects of long-term cropping regimes on soil carbon sequestration and aggregate composition in rainfed farmland of Northeast China. Kou, T. J.,Song, Z. W.,Deng, A. X.,Zhang, W. J.,Kou, T. J.,Zhu, P.,Gao, H. J.,Peng, C.,Huang, S.,Peng, X. X.,Zhang, W. J..

[17]Altitudinal effects on the quality of green tea in east China: a climate change perspective. Han, Wen-Yan,Li, Xin,Li, Zhi-Xin,Ahammed, Golam Jalal,Yan, Peng,Huang, Ji-Gang,Stepp, John Richard.

[18]Global surface temperature change analysis based on MODIS data in recent twelve years. Mao, K. B.,Ma, Y.,Li, Z. L.,Mao, K. B.,Liu, G.,Mao, K. B.,Liu, G.,Tan, X. L.,Shen, X. Y.,Chen, J. M.,Xia, L.,Mao, K. B.,Ma, Y..

[19]Effect of nitrogen regimes on narrowing the magnitude of maize yield penalty caused by high temperature stress in North China Plain. Yan, Peng,Chen, Yuanquan,Dadouma, Adamou,Tao, Zhiqiang,Sui, Peng,Tao, Zhiqiang.

[20]Land use/cover change and regional climate change in an arid grassland ecosystem of Inner Mongolia, China. Li, Zhouyuan,Wu, Wenzhao,Liu, Xuehua,Liu, Xinchao,Li, Zhouyuan,Wu, Wenzhao,Liu, Xuehua,Liu, Xinchao,Li, Zhouyuan,Fath, Brian D.,Sun, Hailian,Liu, Xinchao,Sun, Hailian,Liu, Xinchao,Xiao, Xinru,Cao, Jun.

作者其他论文 更多>>

微信小程序