Modelling China's potential maize production at regional scale under climate change

文献类型： 外文期刊

第一作者： Xiong, Wei

作者： Xiong, Wei;Matthews, Robin;Holman, Ian;Lin, Erda;Xu, Yinglong

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期刊名称：CLIMATIC CHANGE （ 影响因子：4.743； 五年影响因子：5.633 ）

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收录情况： SCI

摘要： With the continuing warming due to greenhouse gases concentration, it is important to examine the potential impacts on regional crop production spatially and temporally. We assessed China's potential maize production at 50 x 50 km grid scale under climate change scenarios using modelling approach. Two climate changes scenarios (A2 and B2) and three time slices (2011-2040, 2041-2070, 2071-2100) produced by the PRECIS Regional Climate Model were used. Rain-fed and irrigated maize yields were simulated with the CERES-Maize model, with present optimum management practices. The model was run for 30 years of baseline climate and three time slices for the two climate change scenarios, without and with simulation of direct CO fertilization effects. Crop simulation results under climate change scenarios varied considerably between regions and years. Without the CO fertilization effect, China's maize production was predicted to suffer a negative effect under both A2 and B2 scenarios for all time slices, with greatest production decreases in today's major maize planting areas. When the CO fertilization effect is taken into account, production was predicted to increase for rain-fed maize but decrease for irrigated maize, under both A2 and B2 scenarios for most time periods.

分类号： P46

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