Climate change impact on China food security in 2050

文献类型： 外文期刊

第一作者： Ye, Liming

作者： Ye, Liming;Li, Zhengguo;Yang, Peng;Wu, Wenbin;Yang, Guixia;Fu, Yijiang;Zou, Jinqiu;Chen, Zhongxin;Tang, Huajun;Ye, Liming;Van Ranst, Eric;Xiong, Wei;Fu, Yijiang

作者机构：

关键词： Food security;Climate change Crop modeling;Crop yield;Scenario;Food production;Policy;China

期刊名称：AGRONOMY FOR SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT （ 影响因子：5.832； 五年影响因子：9.354 ）

ISSN：

年卷期：

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收录情况： SCI

摘要： Climate change is now affecting global agriculture and food production worldwide. Nonetheless the direct link between climate change and food security at the national scale is poorly understood. Here we simulated the effect of climate change on food security in China using the CERES crop models and the IPCC SRES A2 and B2 scenarios including C02 fertilization effect. Models took into account population size, urbanization rate, cropland area, cropping intensity and technology development. Our resultspredict that food crop yield will increase +3-11 % under A2 scenario and +4 % under B2 scenario during 2030-2050, despite disparities among individual crops. As a consequence China will be able to achieve a production of 572 and 615 MT in 2030, then 635and 646 MT in 2050 under A2 and B2 scenarios, respectively. In 2030 the food security index (FSI) will drop from +24 % in 2009 to -4.5 % and +10.2 % under A2 and B2 scenarios, respectively. In 2050, however, the FSI is predicted to increase to +7.1 % and+20.0 % under A2 and B2 scenarios, respectively, but this increase will be achieved only with the projected decrease of Chinese population. We conclude that 1) the proposed food security index is a simple yet powerful tool for food security analysis; (2) yield growth rate is a much better indicator of food security than yield per se; and (3) climate change only has a moderate positive effect on food security as compared to other factors such as cropland area, population growth, socio-economic pathway and technology development. Relevant policy options and research topics are suggested accordingly.

分类号： S

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