Potential benefits of climate change for crop productivity in China

文献类型： 外文期刊

第一作者： Yang, Xiaoguang

作者： Yang, Xiaoguang;Liu, Zhijuan;Zhao, Jin;Li, Kenan;Ye, Qing;Li, Yong;Lv, Shuo;Chen, Fu;Zhang, Hailin;Lin, Xiaomao;Yang, Peng;Wu, Wenbin;Li, Zhengguo;Tang, Huajun;Yang, Peng;Wu, Wenbin;Li, Zhengguo;Tang, Huajun;Lal, Rattan

作者机构：

关键词： Climate change;Crop productivity;Multiple cropping systems;Crop planting area;China;Food security

期刊名称：AGRICULTURAL AND FOREST METEOROLOGY （ 影响因子：5.734； 五年影响因子：5.964 ）

ISSN：

年卷期：

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收录情况： SCI

摘要： Multiple cropping systems are particularly important in China to feed the 19% of the world's population with only 8% of the arable land. Rising temperatures can dramatically affect multiple cropping systems and, as a consequence, food security in China. Here, we investigate the impacts of climate change on the northern limits and crop planting areas of multiple cropping systems in China, and estimate the impacts of the change in the crop planting areas of multiple cropping systems on the China's crop production (maize, wheat, and rice). Based on both historical climate observations from the China Meteorological Administration and future climate A1B emission scenario (IPCC, 2007) data for China, we evaluate the effects of climate change on multiple cropping systems in China. Historical statistical crop yield and simulated crop yield by Agricultural Production Systems Simulator (APSIM model) in 2011-2100 were used to quantify the crop production (maize, wheat, and rice) in China. We found that the northern limits of multiple cropping systems have been shifted northward. The projected area of cultivated land for triple-cropping system may significantly expand during the 21st century. The northern shifts resulted in a 2.2% (similar to 8,000,000 t) increase in national production of three major crops (maize, wheat, and rice) during the period from 1981 to 2010, positively impacting China's food security. Therefore, we conclude that the warming due to climate change may cause a positive impact on the crop production in China if concomitant changes adapted in multiple cropping systems take place. (C) 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

分类号： S1

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