Adopting higher-yielding varieties to ensure Chinese food security under climate change in 2050
文献类型: 外文期刊
第一作者: Ye, Liming
作者: Ye, Liming;Tang, Huajun;Yang, Guixia;Van Ranst, Eric;Ye, Liming;Tang, Huajun;Yang, Guixia;Ye, Liming;Van Ranst, Eric
作者机构:
关键词: Adaptation;Adaptive capacity;Agricultural crops;Food security index;Food self-sufficiency;Scenario building
期刊名称:AGRICULTURE AND CLIMATE CHANGE - ADAPTING CROPS TO INCREASED UNCERTAINTY (AGRI 2015)
ISSN: 1878-0296
年卷期: 2015 年 29 卷
页码:
收录情况: SCI
摘要: Challenges of ensuring food security under climate change require urgent and substantial increase in the focus of research, innovation, transformation of knowledge, and rapid adoption of available technologies. Here we simulate the effects of the adoption of higher-yielding varieties of rice, wheat and maize crops into the food production systems on China's food security index (FSI, or relative food surplus per capita) in 2050, using the CERES crop models, climate change and a range of socioeconomic and agronomic scenarios which were developed following two contrasting development pathways in line with the IPCC A2 and B2 emission scenarios, respectively. The obtained results predict a slightly positive effect of climate change on the FSI, but the magnitude of this positive effect cannot compensate the negative effects of population growth, urbanization rate and the rising affluence on the future trends of the FSI. The outcomes of the adoption of higher-yielding varieties show that a systematic adoption of higher-yielding varieties can raise the average FSI values by a margin of 16 and 27 units under the A2 and B2 scenarios, respectively, during the 2030-2050 period, compared to the average predicted FSI values of -2 and 8 percentage points under A2 and B2 during the same period. This suggests that systematic adoption of higher-yield varieties is an effective measure for Chinese agriculture not only to ensure food security but also to build adaptive capacity to climate change in 2050. (C) 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V.
分类号:
- 相关文献
作者其他论文 更多>>
-
Conflicting stakeholder priorities produce sustainability tradeoffs for cereal production in Northeast China
作者:Liang, Shefang;Sun, Jing;Wu, Wenbin;Tang, Huajun;Yang, Peng;Liang, Shefang;Defries, Ruth;Davis, Kyle Frankel;Davis, Kyle Frankel;Rao, Narasimha D.;Rao, Narasimha D.;Singh, Deepti;Defries, Ruth
关键词:sustainable agriculture; nutritional yield; water requirement; GHGs; cereals; stakeholders
-
Climate adaptation through rice northward expansion aggravated groundwater overexploitation in Northeast China
作者:Liang, Shefang;Lu, Miao;Xia, Lang;Zha, Yan;Tang, Huajun;Yang, Peng;Liu, Weipo;You, Liangzhi;You, Liangzhi;Liu, Yuan;Liu, Zhenhuan
关键词:
-
A Systematic Review and Assessment of Inverse Crop Parameter Modeling Based on Synthetic Aperture Radar Data: Research advances, existing problems, and future directions
作者:Zhao, Rongkun;Wu, Shangrong;Cao, Hong;Yang, Peng;Tang, Huajun;Shao, Yun;Liu, Zhiqu;Wu, Xuexiao;Xing, Mengdao
关键词:Crops; Scattering; Radar; Monitoring; Spaceborne radar; Backscatter; Satellites; Remote sensing; C-band; Radar remote sensing
-
A new approach for spatial optimization of crop planting structure to balance economic and environmental benefits
作者:Hu, Mengmeng;Tang, Huajun;Yu, Qiangyi;Wu, Wenbin;Hu, Mengmeng;Tang, Huajun;Yu, Qiangyi;Wu, Wenbin
关键词:Optimal crop planting structure; Multi-objective interval parameter; programming; Life cycle assessment; Dyna-CLUE model; MaxEnt model; Uncertainty analysis
-
A novel index for mapping crop residue covered cropland using remote sensing data
作者:Zhang, Wenqian;Li, Wenjuan;Wang, Cong;Yu, Qiangyi;Tang, Huajun;Wu, Wenbin;Zhang, Wenqian;Li, Wenjuan;Wang, Cong;Yu, Qiangyi;Tang, Huajun;Wu, Wenbin
关键词:Crop residue covered cropland mapping; Crop residue covered spectral index (CRCSI); Spectral analysis; Multi-band index
-
Anthropogenic and climate impacts on carbon stocks of grassland ecosystems in Inner Mongolia and adjacent region
作者:Xin, Xiaoping;Lan, Xueqi;Tang, HuaJun;Shao, Changliang;Qin, Yifei;Qing, Gele;Yan, Ruirui;Hou, Lulu;Li, Linghao;Guo, Haonan;Li, Hui;Jiang, Cuixia;Liu, Feng;Liu, Zhonglin;Qi, Jiaguo
关键词:Anthropogenic impacts; Climate change; Grassland ecosystems; Inner mongolia and adjacent regions; Carbon dynamics
-
Long-term grassland diversity-productivity relationship regulated by management regimes in northern China
作者:Nie, Yingying;Xu, Lijun;Xin, Xiaoping;Ye, Liming;Ye, Liming
关键词:Diversity; Productivity; Enclosure; Mowing; Livestock grazing; Meadow steppe