The Estimation of Regional Crop Yield Using Ensemble-Based Four-Dimensional Variational Data Assimilation

文献类型： 外文期刊

第一作者： Jiang, Zhiwei

作者： Jiang, Zhiwei;Chen, Jin;Jiang, Zhiwei;Chen, Zhongxin;Ren, Jianqiang;Li, Zongnan;Sun, Liang;Jiang, Zhiwei;Chen, Zhongxin;Ren, Jianqiang;Li, Zongnan;Sun, Liang

作者机构：

关键词： four-dimensional variation;crop model;data assimilation;yield estimation;leaf area index;remote sensing

期刊名称：REMOTE SENSING （ 影响因子：4.848； 五年影响因子：5.353 ）

ISSN： 2072-4292

年卷期： 2014 年 6 卷 4 期

页码：

收录情况： SCI

摘要： To improve crop model performance for regional crop yield estimates, a new four-dimensional variational algorithm (POD4DVar) merging the Monte Carlo and proper orthogonal decomposition techniques was introduced to develop a data assimilation strategy using the Crop Environment Resource Synthesis (CERES)-Wheat model. Two winter wheat yield estimation procedures were conducted on a field plot and regional scale to test the feasibility and potential of the POD4DVar-based strategy. Winter wheat yield forecasts for the field plots showed a coefficient of determination (R-2) of 0.73, a root mean square error (RMSE) of 319 kg/ha, and a relative error (RE) of 3.49%. An acceptable yield at the regional scale was estimated with an R-2 of 0.997, RMSE of 7346 tons, and RE of 3.81%. The POD4DVar-based strategy was more accurate and efficient than the EnKF-based strategy. In addition to crop yield, other critical crop variables such as the biomass, harvest index, evapotranspiration, and soil organic carbon may also be estimated. The present study thus introduces a promising approach for operationally monitoring regional crop growth and predicting yield. Successful application of this assimilation model at regional scales must focus on uncertainties derived from the crop model, model inputs, data assimilation algorithm, and assimilated observations.

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