Simulated impact of elevated CO2, temperature, and precipitation on the winter wheat yield in the North China Plain

文献类型： 外文期刊

第一作者： Yang, Peng

作者： Yang, Peng;Wu, Wenbin;Li, Zhengguo;Yu, Qiangyi;Liu, Zhenhuan;Tang, Pengqin;Zha, Yan;Tang, Huajun;Yang, Peng;Kimoto, Masahide;Inatsu, Masaru

作者机构：

关键词： Agriculture;Climate change;Crop simulation model;Crop yield;Water use efficiency;Winter wheat

期刊名称：REGIONAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE （ 影响因子：3.678； 五年影响因子：4.135 ）

ISSN： 1436-3798

年卷期： 2014 年 14 卷 1 期

页码：

收录情况： SCI

摘要： We studied the separate and interacting effects of changes on CO2, temperature, and precipitation on the growth and yield of winter wheat in five representative sites on the North China Plain using a crop yield simulation model, known as the Environmental Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) model. The daily-maximum/minimum temperature and precipitation data obtained using a comprehensive climate model, that is, the Model for Interdisciplinary Research On Climate (MIROC), based on the scenario A1B for 2085-2100 were calibrated using a novel statistical algorithm and used as the climate change scenario in the EPIC model. The results indicated that an increase in the CO2 concentration of up to 680 ppm would increase the winter wheat yield by 24.8 and 43.1 % in irrigated and rainfed fields, respectively. Increases in the average maximum temperature of up to 4.9 degrees C and the average minimum temperature of up to 4.8 degrees C would increase the crop yield by 5.2 % in irrigated condition, but decrease it by 7.2 % in rainfed condition. By contrast, the yield of irrigated field decreased by 5.5 % when the annual precipitation increased by 317 mm, whereas that of rainfed field increased by 30.1 %. The interacting effects of simultaneous increases in the parameters were also simulated. With a constant CO2 level (370 ppm), the EPIC model predicted that the effects of temperature and precipitation on yield would be -0.9 and -1.9 % for irrigated and rainfed fields, respectively. When the CO2 level increased to 680 ppm, the interacting effect of elevated CO2, temperature, and precipitation increased the average yield by ca 23.1 % with the irrigated treatment and by ca 27.7 % with the rainfed treatment. The results also indicated that with a climate change scenario, the temperature-stress days decreased during the period of winter wheat growth whereas the nitrogen-stress days increased significantly in the North China Plain. These simulated separate and interaction simulations may be useful for identifying appropriate management or genotype adaptations of winter wheat to cope with a climate change scenario in the North China Plain.

分类号：

  • 相关文献

[1]Effects of different planting patterns on water use and yield performance of winter wheat in the Huang-Huai-Hai plain of China. Zhang, Jiyang,Sun, Jingsheng,Duan, Aiwang,Wang, Jinglei,Shen, Xiaojun,Liu, Xiaofei.

[2]Effect of alternative tillage and residue cover on yield and water use efficiency in annual double cropping system in North China Plain. He Jin,Wang Qingjie,Li Hongwen,Gao Huanwen,Liu Lijin.

[3]Projecting regional climate and cropland changes using a linked biogeophysical-socioeconomic modeling framework: 1. Model description and an equilibrium application over West Africa. Wang, Guiling,Ahmed, Kazi Farzan,Yu, Miao,Ji, Zhenming,You, Liangzhi,You, Liangzhi,Yu, Miao,Pal, Jeremy,Ji, Zhenming. 2017

[4]Adaptation of agriculture to warming in Northeast China. Yang, Xiu,Lin, Erda,Ma, Shiming,Ju, Hui,Guo, Liping,Xiong, Wei,Li, Yue,Xu, Yinlong.

[5]Effects of Tillage Practices on Water Consumption, Water Use Efficiency and Grain Yield in Wheat Field. Zheng Cheng-yan,Yu Zhen-wen,Shi Yu,Cui Shi-ming,Wang Dong,Zhang Yong-li,Zheng Cheng-yan,Zhao Jun-ye. 2014

[6]Effects of variation in rainfall on rainfed crop yields and water use in dryland farming areas in China. Wang, Xiaobin,Cai, Dianxiong,Wu, Huijun,Cai, Dianxiong,Hoogmoed, W. B.,Oenema, O..

[7]Evaluation of nitrogen fate, water and nitrogen use efficiencies of winter wheat in North China Plain based on model approach. Jin, Liang,Hu, Kelin,Li, Baoguo,Jin, Liang,Wei, Dan,Deelstra, Johannes,Wang, Huanyuan.

[8]Interpretation of Climate Change and Agricultural Adaptations by Local Household Farmers: a Case Study at Bin County, Northeast China. Yu Qiang-yi,Wu Wen-bin,Xia Tian,Yang Peng,Tang Hua-jun,Liu Zhen-huan,Verburg, Peter H.,Lu Zhong-jun,You Liang-zhi. 2014

[9]Global warming, rice production, and water use in China: Developing a probabilistic assessment. Sakamoto, Toshihiro,Yokozawa, Masayuki,Tao, Fulu,Tao, Fulu,Hayashi, Yousay,Zhang, Zhao. 2008

[10]Uncertainties in assessing the effect of climate change on agriculture using model simulation and uncertainty processing methods. Zhang JiaHua,Yao FengMei,Qin PengCheng,Zhang JiaHua,Zhang JiaHua,Lin ErDa,Boken, Vijendra. 2011

[11]Agriculture under Climate Change in China: Mitigate the Risks by Grasping the Emerging Opportunities. Tian, Zhan,Liang, Zhuoran,Liang, Zhuoran,Sun, Laixiang,Zhong, Honglin,Sun, Laixiang,Fischer, Guenther,Qiu, Huanguang,Zhao, Sijian.

[12]Greenhouse gas mitigation in Chinese agriculture: Distinguishing technical and economic potentials. Wang, Wen,Guo, Liping,Lin, Erda,Wang, Wen,de Perthuis, Christian,Koslowski, Frank,Moran, Dominic,Nayak, Dali Rani,Smith, Pete,Saetnan, Eli,Ju, Xiaotang,Han, Guodong.

[13]Estimating the impacts of climate change on crop yields and N2O emissions for conventional and no-tillage in Southwestern Ontario, Canada. He, Wentian,He, Ping,Zhou, Wei,He, Wentian,Yang, J. Y.,Drury, C. F.,Smith, W. N.,Grant, B. B.,Qian, B.,Hoogenboom, G.. 2018

[14]Climate Change Modelling and Its Roles to Chinese Crops Yield. Ju Hui,Lin Er-da,Jiang Shuai,Ju Hui,Lin Er-da,Wheeer, Tim,Challinor, Andrew. 2013

[15]Climate and crop yields impacted by ENSO episodes on the North China Plain: 1956-2006. Liu, Yuan,Liu, Yuan,Liu, Yuan,Yang, Xiaoguang,Wang, Enli,Xue, Changying.

[16]Relationships between soil respiration and photosynthesis-related spectral vegetation indices in two cropland ecosystems. Huang, Ni,Niu, Zheng,Zhan, Yulin,Xu, Shiguang,Wu, Chaoyang,Gao, Shuai,Hou, Xuehui,Cai, Dewen,Huang, Ni,Xu, Shiguang,Hou, Xuehui,Cai, Dewen,Tappert, Michelle C.,Huang, Wenjiang.

[17]Assessing crop yield and crop water productivity and optimizing irrigation scheduling of winter wheat and summer maize in the Haihe plain using SWAT model. Sun, Chen,Sun, Chen,Ren, Li.

[18]Estimation of regional crop yield by assimilating multi-temporal TM images into crop growth model. Yang, Peng,Zhou, Qingbo,Chen, Zhongxin,Zha, Yan,Wu, Wenbin,Shibasaki, Ryosuke. 2006

[19]PREDICTION OF CHANGE OF WINTER WHEAT IN NORTH CHINA BY USING IPCC-AR4 MODEL DATA. Zhang Mingwei,Fan Jinlong,Li Guicai,Deng Hui,Ren Jianqiang,Chen Zhongxin,Deng Hui,Ren Jianqiang,Chen Zhongxin. 2011

[20]Low yield gap of winter wheat in the North China Plain. Li, Kenan,Yang, Xiaoguang,Liu, Zhijuan,Lu, Shuo,Zhang, Tianyi,Liu, Yuan.

作者其他论文 更多>>

微信小程序