The benefits of recent warming for maize production in high latitude China

文献类型： 外文期刊

第一作者： Meng, Qingfeng

作者： Meng, Qingfeng;Hou, Peng;Wang, Hongfei;Cui, Zhenling;Zhang, Fusuo;Chen, Xinping;Meng, Qingfeng;Lobell, David B.;Meng, Qingfeng;Lobell, David B.;Hou, Peng;Hou, Peng

作者机构：

期刊名称：CLIMATIC CHANGE （ 影响因子：4.743； 五年影响因子：5.633 ）

ISSN： 0165-0009

年卷期： 2014 年 122 卷 1-2 期

页码：

收录情况： SCI

摘要： Latitudes above 45A degrees N have been characterized by rates of warming faster than the global average since 1980. However, the effects of this warming on crop production at these latitudes are still unclear. Using 30-years of weather and crop management data in Heilongjiang area of China (43.4A degrees to 53.4A degrees N), combined with the Hybrid-Maize model, we show that that maize yields would have stagnated in most areas and decreased in the southern part of Heilongjiang if varieties were assumed fixed since 1980. However, we show that through farmers' adaptation, warming has benefitted maize production for much of this region. Specifically, farmers gradually chose longer maturing varieties, resulting in a net 7-17 % yield increase per decade. Meanwhile, farmers also rapidly expanded maize area (from 1.88 million ha in 1980 to 4.01 million ha in 2009) and the northward limit of maize area shifted by more than 290 km from similar to 50.8A degrees N to similar to 53.4A degrees N. Overall, benefits from warming represented 35 % of the overall yield gains in the region over this period. The results indicate substantial ongoing adaptations and benefits at north high-latitudes, although they still represent a small fraction of global maize area. The sustainability of crop area expansion in these regions remains unclear and deserves further study.

分类号：

  • 相关文献
作者其他论文 更多>>

微信小程序