Untangling relative contributions of recent climate and CO2 trends to national cereal production in China

文献类型： 外文期刊

第一作者： Xiong, Wei

作者： Xiong, Wei;Lin, Erda;Li, Yue;Holman, Ian;Conway, Declan;Wu, Wenbin

作者机构：

关键词： climate change;relative contribution;cereal production;China

期刊名称：ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS （ 影响因子：6.793； 五年影响因子：7.801 ）

ISSN： 1748-9326

年卷期： 2012 年 7 卷 4 期

页码：

收录情况： SCI

摘要： There is increasing evidence of crop yield response to recent global warming, yet there is poor understanding of the relative contributions of different climatic variables to changes in crop production. Using a spatially calibrated crop model with cultivars and crop inputs held constant for the year 2000, we simulate idealized national cereal production during the period 1961-2010 under different combinations of observed climate and CO2 forcings. With increasing CO2 and all climate forcings, production shows a slight and insignificant change (-0.9% between 1961 and 2010); however, without CO2 the combined climate forcings decrease production (-8.6%). Changing one climate variable at a time, whilst holding the other variables constant at 1961 values, observed warming has virtually no overall effect on production (0.01%), precipitation decreases it by 1.2% and radiation decreases it by 7.0%. The effects are management and crop dependent, with decreasing radiation responsible for reduced irrigated crop production, and precipitation for variability in rain-fed crop production. Rice is the most sensitive crop, with the largest decline (-12.4%) in simulated production. Wheat shows reduced yield (-9.7%) owing to climate factors, whilst offset by CO2 fertilization (overall change 0.9%). Maize shows insignificant change (-1.2%) and moderate increase in production (2.6%), respectively. These model results suggest that decreasing radiation due to increasing aerosol concentration and other atmospheric pollutants has had a greater effect on crop production than warming trends in China. This underscores the need for crop-climate studies to resolve better the effects of radiation on crop yield and examine climate model projections of radiation in greater detail.

分类号：

  • 相关文献

[1]Climate change and glacier area variations in China during the past half century. Tian Hong-zhen,He Ying-bin,Tian Hong-zhen,Yang Tai-bao,Lv Hui,Li Cheng-xiu,Li Cheng-xiu,He Ying-bin. 2016

[2]Evaluation of changes in ecological security in China's Qinghai Lake Basin from 2000 to 2013 and the relationship to land use and climate change. Wang, Hong,Li, Xiaobing,Yu, Feng,Long, Huiling. 2014

[3]Adaptation of agriculture to warming in Northeast China. Yang, Xiu,Lin, Erda,Ma, Shiming,Ju, Hui,Guo, Liping,Xiong, Wei,Li, Yue,Xu, Yinlong.

[4]Potential impacts of climate change and climate variability on China's rice yield and production. Xiong, Wei,Lin, Erda,Xiong, Wei,Lin, Erda,Conway, Declan,Holman, Ian.

[5]Geographic Variation of Rice Yield Response to Past Climate Change in China. Yang Jie,Yang Xiao-guang,Xiong Wei,Cao Yang,Feng Ling-zhi,Xiong Wei,Xiong Wei. 2014

[6]Climate Change Modelling and Its Roles to Chinese Crops Yield. Ju Hui,Lin Er-da,Jiang Shuai,Ju Hui,Lin Er-da,Wheeer, Tim,Challinor, Andrew. 2013

[7]Future cereal production in China: The interaction of climate change, water availability and socio-economic scenarios. Xiong Wei,Erda, Lin,Xu Yinlong,Ju Hui,Xiong Wei,Erda, Lin,Xu Yinlong,Ju Hui,Declan, Conway,Jiang Jinhe,Ian, Holman,Li Yan. 2009

[8]Potential benefits of climate change for crop productivity in China. Yang, Xiaoguang,Liu, Zhijuan,Zhao, Jin,Li, Kenan,Ye, Qing,Li, Yong,Lv, Shuo,Chen, Fu,Zhang, Hailin,Lin, Xiaomao,Yang, Peng,Wu, Wenbin,Li, Zhengguo,Tang, Huajun,Yang, Peng,Wu, Wenbin,Li, Zhengguo,Tang, Huajun,Lal, Rattan.

[9]Global warming, rice production, and water use in China: Developing a probabilistic assessment. Sakamoto, Toshihiro,Yokozawa, Masayuki,Tao, Fulu,Tao, Fulu,Hayashi, Yousay,Zhang, Zhao. 2008

[10]Climate Change Impact and Its Contribution Share to Paddy Rice Production in Jiangxi, China. Li Wen-juan,Tang Hua-jun,Qin Zhi-hao,You Fei,Wang Xiu-fen,Tang Hua-jun,Qin Zhi-hao,Chen Chang-li,Ji jian-hua,Liu Xiu-mei. 2014

[11]Agriculture under Climate Change in China: Mitigate the Risks by Grasping the Emerging Opportunities. Tian, Zhan,Liang, Zhuoran,Liang, Zhuoran,Sun, Laixiang,Zhong, Honglin,Sun, Laixiang,Fischer, Guenther,Qiu, Huanguang,Zhao, Sijian.

[12]Adaptation and Mitigation of Impact of Climate Change on Tropical Fruit Industry in China. Chen, Qiubo. 2012

[13]Effects of climate variability and change on Chinese agriculture: a review. Conway, Declan,Li, Yue,Xiong, Wei,Gao, Qingzhu,Wu, Yanjuan,Wan, Yunfan,Li, Yan,Zhang, Silong.

[14]China's water-energy nexus: greenhouse-gas emissions from groundwater use for agriculture. Wang, Jinxia,Zhang, Lijuan,Li, Yumin,Rothausen, Sabrina G. S. A.,Conway, Declan,Rothausen, Sabrina G. S. A.,Conway, Declan,Xiong, Wei,Holman, Ian P.. 2012

[15]Greenhouse gas mitigation in Chinese agriculture: Distinguishing technical and economic potentials. Wang, Wen,Guo, Liping,Lin, Erda,Wang, Wen,de Perthuis, Christian,Koslowski, Frank,Moran, Dominic,Nayak, Dali Rani,Smith, Pete,Saetnan, Eli,Ju, Xiaotang,Han, Guodong.

[16]Meeting demands for increased cereal production in China. He, Zhonghu,Xia, Xianchun,Peng, Shaobing,He, Zhonghu,Lumpkin, Thomas Adam. 2014

[17]Genetic differentiation in seven geographic populations of the fleshy shrimp Penaeus (Fenneropenaeus) chinensis based on microsatellite DNA. Meng, Xian Hong,Wang, Qing Yin,Liu, Ping,Kong, Jie,Meng, Xian Hong,Jang, In Kwon.

[18]Evaluating agricultural catastrophic risk. Xu, Lei,Zhang, Qiao,Xu, Lei,Zhang, Qiao,Zhang, Xi. 2011

[19]Construction of a Genetic Linkage Map and Mapping of a Female-Specific DNA Marker in Half-Smooth Tongue Sole (Cynoglossus semilaevis). Liao, Xiaolin,Ma, Hong-Yu,Xu, Gen-Bo,Shao, Chang-Wei,Tian, Yong-Sheng,Ji, Xiang-Shan,Yang, Jing-Feng,Chen, Song-Lin.

[20]Assessment of the local environmental impact of intensive marine shellfish and seaweed farming-Application of the MOM system in the Sungo Bay, China. Zhang, Jihong,Fang, Jianguang,Wang, Wei,Jiang, Zengjie,Zhang, Jihong,Fang, Jianguang,Wang, Wei,Jiang, Zengjie,Hansen, Pia Kupka.

作者其他论文 更多>>

微信小程序