Modelling the abundance of three key plant species in New Zealand hill-pasture using a decision tree approach

文献类型： 外文期刊

第一作者： Wan, Liqiang

作者： Wan, Liqiang;Li, Xianglin;Zhang, Baisen;Kemp, Peter

作者机构：

关键词： Decision tree;GIs;Hill-pasture;Modelling;Regression model;Species abundance

期刊名称：ECOLOGICAL MODELLING （ 影响因子：2.974； 五年影响因子：3.264 ）

ISSN： 0304-3800

年卷期： 2009 年 220 卷 15 期

页码：

收录情况： SCI

摘要： Decision tree models were developed to investigate and predict the relative abundance of three key pasture plants [ryegrass (Lolium perenne), browntop (Agrostis capillaris), and white clover (Trifolium repens)] with integration of a geographical information system (GIS) in a naturalised hill-pasture in the North Island, New Zealand, and were compared with regression models with respect to model fit and predictive accuracy. The results indicated that the decision tree models had a better model fit in terms of average squared error (ASE) and a higher percentage of adequately predicted cases in model validation than the corresponding regression models. These decision tree models clearly revealed the relative importance of environmental and management variables in influencing the abundance of these three species. Hill slope was the most significant environmental factor influencing the abundance of ryegrass while soil Olsen P and annual P fertilizer input were the most significant factors influencing the abundance of browntop, and white clover, respectively. Soil Olsen P of approximately 10 mu g/g, or a slope of about 10.5 degrees was critical points where the competition between ryegrass and browntop tended to come to an equilibrium. Integrating the decision tree models with a GIS in this study not only facilitated the model development and analyses, but also provided a useful decision support tool in pasture management such as in assisting precision fertilizer placement. The insights obtained from the decision tree models also have important implications for pasture management, for example, it is important to maintain a soil Olsen P higher than 10 mu g/g in order to keep the dominance of ryegrass in the hill-pasture. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

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