An integrated model to simulate sown area changes for major crops at a global scale

文献类型： 外文期刊

第一作者： Wu WenBin

作者： Wu WenBin;Ryosuke, Shibasaki;Shi Yun;Wu WenBin;Yang Peng;Zhou QingBo;Tang HuaJun;Wu WenBin;Yang Peng;Zhou QingBo;Tang HuaJun;Meng ChaoYing

作者机构：

关键词： land use change;crop sown area;simulation;crop choice;global scale

期刊名称：SCIENCE IN CHINA SERIES D-EARTH SCIENCES （ 影响因子：1.588； 五年影响因子：1.42 ）

ISSN： 1006-9313

年卷期： 2008 年 51 卷 3 期

页码：

收录情况： SCI

摘要： Dynamics of land use systems have attracted much attention from scientists around the world due to their ecological and socio-economic implications. An integrated model to dynamically simulate future changes in sown areas of four major crops (rice, maize, wheat and soybean) on a global scale is presented. To do so, a crop choice model was developed on the basis of Multinomial Logit (Logit) model to model land users' decisions on crop choices among a set of available alternatives with using a crop utility function. A GIS-based Environmental Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) model was adopted to simulate the crop yields under a given geophysical environment and farming management conditions, while the International Food Policy and Agricultural Simulation (IFPSIM) model was utilized to estimate crop price in the international market. The crop choice model was linked with the GIS-based EPIC model and the IFPSIM model through data exchange. This integrated model was then validated against the FAO statistical data in 2001-2003 and the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) global land cover product in 2001. Both validation approaches indicated reliability of the model for addressing the dynamics in agricultural land use and its capability for long-term scenario analysis. Finally, the model application was designed to run over a time period of 30 a, taking the year 2000 as baseline. The model outcomes can help understand and explain the causes, locations and consequences of land use changes, and provide support for land use planning and policy making.

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