Climate changes and trends in phenology and yields of field crops in China, 1981-2000

文献类型： 外文期刊

第一作者： Tao, Fulu

作者： Tao, Fulu;Yokozawa, Masayuki;Xu, Yinlong;Hayashi, Yousay;Zhang, Zhao

作者机构：

关键词： agricultural production;crop;food security;observed impacts;warming trend

期刊名称：AGRICULTURAL AND FOREST METEOROLOGY （ 影响因子：5.734； 五年影响因子：5.964 ）

ISSN： 0168-1923

年卷期： 2006 年 138 卷 1-4 期

页码：

收录情况： SCI

摘要： A warming trend has become pronounced since the 1980s in China and is projected to accelerate in the future. Concerns about the vulnerability of agricultural production to climate change are increasing. The impact of future climate change on crop production has been widely predicted by using crop models and climate change scenarios, but little evidence of the observed impacts of climate change on crop production has been reported. In this study, we synthesized crop and climate data from representative stations across China during 1981-2000 to investigate whether there were significant trends in changes of climate variables in different regions, and whether theses changes have had significant impact on the development and production of the staple crops (i.e. rice, wheat, and maize). Our results showed that significant warming trends were observed at most of the investigated stations, and the changes in temperature have shifted crop phenology and affected crop yields during the two decades. The observed climate change patterns, as well their impacts on crop phenology and yields are spatially diverse across China. Our study also highlights the need for further investigations of the combined impacts of temperature and CO2 concentration on physiological processes and mechanisms governing crop growth and production. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

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