文献类型： 外文期刊

第一作者： Erda, L

作者： Erda, L

作者机构：

关键词： China; agriculture; maize; rice; wheat; GFDL; MPI; UKMO

期刊名称：WATER AIR AND SOIL POLLUTION （ 影响因子：2.52； 五年影响因子：2.574 ）

ISSN： 0049-6979

年卷期： 1996 年 92 卷 1-2 期

页码：

收录情况： SCI

摘要： This paper discusses the vulnerability and adaptation of the agricultural sector of China to global warming. Based on a summarization of Chinese agricultural and general circulation model trends, adverse impacts on China's agriculture caused by a warming and drying climate were identified. Because of limited irrigation potential the sustainable development of Chinese agriculture will be difficult. Six sensitive agricultural areas located on the edges of different agroecological zones, and seven provinces with high vulnerability to the impacts on agriculture, were identified On the basis of an estimation of the potential supply of agricultural products and demand for food, the annual incremental costs for adaptation to climate change would be US$0.8-3.48 billion; without adaptation, the annual agricultural loss due to global warming would be US$1.37-79.98 billion from 2000 to 2050. Adaptive measures discussed include intensive management and the possibility of a tripartite structure of planting that would entail coordinated development of grain crops, feed crops, and cash crops.

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