Damage of extreme water levels and the adaptation cost of dikes in the Pearl River Delta

文献类型： 外文期刊

第一作者： He, Lei

作者： He, Lei;Li, Guosheng;Zhang, Yue;Guo, Tengjiao;Li, Kuo

作者机构：

关键词： adaptation cost; extreme events; Pearl River Delta; sea-level rise; storm surge

期刊名称：JOURNAL OF WATER AND CLIMATE CHANGE （ 影响因子：1.9； 五年影响因子：1.849 ）

ISSN： 2040-2244

年卷期： 2020 年 11 卷 3 期

页码：

收录情况： SCI

摘要： Many of the world's largest coastal cities are becoming increasingly vulnerable to extreme events due to their growing populations and infrastructure, the changing climate, and subsidence. This paper assessed the economic impacts of extreme climatic events including sea-level rise and storm surge risk and the benefits of the adaptation strategies in the Pearl River Delta, a lowing-lying area located in southern China. An economic benefit-cost model was established for the estimation of the impacts and benefits. The damage of the extreme events was calculated using the damage rate modeled from the historic disaster database, and then the difference between the damage and the cost of heightening dikes was investigated under different scenarios. The results showed that the damage rate and storm surge level were positively related. The adaptation strategies benefited when the dike was heightened by 1.43-12.67 m, with the optimum reached at 5.15 m, and the dike did not exceed 12.67 m. The maximum benefits were obtained when the dike was designed to defend a 20-year return period storm surge in 2100, and the minimum when the dike is heightened to defend a 100-year return period storm surge in 2100.

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