Weakening density dependence from climate change and agricultural intensification triggers pest outbreaks: a 37-year observation of cotton bollworms

文献类型： 外文期刊

第一作者： Ouyang, Fang

作者： Ouyang, Fang;Zhang, Yong-Sheng;Hui, Cang;Ge, Saiying;Men, Xin-Yuan;Zhao, Zi-Hua;Shi, Pei-Jian;Zhang, Yong-Sheng;Li, Bai-Lian

作者机构：

关键词： Climate change;density dependence;human activity;population dynamic;time series;variation partitioning

期刊名称：ECOLOGY AND EVOLUTION （ 影响因子：2.912； 五年影响因子：3.271 ）

ISSN： 2045-7758

年卷期： 2014 年 4 卷 17 期

页码：

收录情况： SCI

摘要： Understanding drivers of population fluctuation, especially for agricultural pests, is central to the provision of agro-ecosystem services. Here, we examine the role of endogenous density dependence and exogenous factors of climate and human activity in regulating the 37-year population dynamics of an important agricultural insect pest, the cotton bollworm (Helicoverpa armigera), in North China from 1975 to 2011. Quantitative time-series analysis provided strong evidence explaining long-term population dynamics of the cotton bollworm and its driving factors. Rising temperature and declining rainfall exacerbated the effect of agricultural intensification on continuously weakening the negative density dependence in regulating the population dynamics of cotton bollworms. Consequently, ongoing climate change and agricultural intensification unleashed the tightly regulated pest population and triggered the regional outbreak of H. armigera in 1992. Although the negative density dependence can effectively regulate the population change rate to fluctuate around zero at stable equilibrium levels before and after outbreak in the 1992, the population equilibrium jumped to a higher density level with apparently larger amplitudes after the outbreak. The results highlight the possibility for exogenous factors to induce pest outbreaks and alter the population regulating mechanism of negative density dependence and, thus, the stable equilibrium of the pest population, often to a higher level, posing considerable risks to the provision of agro-ecosystem services and regional food security. Efficient and timely measures of pest management in the era of Anthropocene should target the strengthening and revival of weakening density dependence caused by climate change and human activities.

分类号：

  • 相关文献

[1]Early eclosion of overwintering cotton bollworm moths from warming temperatures accentuates yield loss in wheat. Ouyang, Fang,Zhang, YongSheng,Fan, Lipeng,Ge, Feng,Hui, Cang,Hui, Cang,Men, XinYuan,Zhang, YongSheng,Shi, Peijian,Zhao, Zihua.

[2]Directed seed dispersal by scatter-hoarding rodents into areas with a low density of conspecific seeds in the absence of pilferage. Wang, Bo,Cao, Lin,Geng, Yuanzhao,Geng, Yuanzhao.

[3]Multiple mechanisms underlie rapid expansion of an invasive alien plant. Wan, Fang-Hao,Wang, Rui,Qiu, Zhi-Jing,Wang, Yin-Zheng,Wang, Jin-Feng,Meng, Bin.

[4]Significant Achievements in Protection and Restoration of Alpine Grassland Ecosystem in Northern Tibet, China. Gao, Qing-zhu,Li, Yue,Wan, Yun-fan,Qin, Xiao-bo,Gao, Qing-zhu,Li, Yue,Wan, Yun-fan,Qin, Xiao-bo,Jiangcun, Wang-zha,Wang, Bao-shan.

[5]Ecosystem management based on ecosystem services and human activities: a case study in the Yanhe watershed. Su, Changhong,Fu, Bojie,Lu, Yihe,Liu, Guohua,Feng, Xiaoming,Wei, Yongping,Wang, Daolong,Mao, Kebiao. 2012

[6]Topography related spatial distribution of dominant tree species in a tropical seasonal rain forest in China. Lan, Guoyu,Hu, Yuehua,Cao, Min,Zhu, Hua,Lan, Guoyu,Lan, Guoyu. 2011

[7]Relative influence of sediment variables on mangrove community assembly in Leizhou Peninsula, China. Liu, Jing,Ma, Keming,Qu, Laiye,Liu, Jing.

[8]Quantifying the impacts of socio-economic factors on air quality in Chinese cities from 2000 to 2009. Zhao, Juanjuan,Ren, Yin,Zhao, Juanjuan,Ren, Yin,Chen, Shengbin,Wang, Hua,Xu, Weihua,Zheng, Hua,Jiang, Bo.

[9]Last 150-Year Variability in Japanese Anchovy (Engraulis japonicus) Abundance Based on the Anaerobic Sediments of the Yellow Sea Basin in the Western North Pacific. Huang Jiansheng,Huang Jiansheng,Sun Yao,Jia Haibo,Tang Qisheng. 2016

[10]Population dynamics and biocontrol efficacy of the nematophagous fungus Hirsutella minnesotensis in pot assay. Liu, Jianbin,Zhu, Weijing,Hamid, Mohammed Imran,Cheng, Xiaoli,Wang, Niuniu,Sun, Jingzu,Liu, Jianbin.

[11]DESIGN AND IMPLEMENTATION OF ACULOPS LYCOPERSICI POPULATION DYNAMIC MODEL PROTOTYPE BASED ON CELLULAR AUTOMATA. Wang, Dongsheng,Li, Linyi,Yuan, Yongda. 2009

[12]Spatial distribution and reconstruction potential of Japanese anchovy (Engraulis japonicus) based on scale deposition records in recent anaerobic sediment of the Yellow Sea and East China Sea. Huang Jiansheng,Huang Jiansheng,Sun Yao,Jia Haibo,Yang Qian,Tang Qisheng. 2014

[13]Fungal community dynamics and driving factors during agricultural waste composting. Yu, Man,Xu, Yuxin,Xiao, Hua,An, Wenhao,Xi, Hui,Xue, Zhiyong,Chen, Xiaoyang,Shen, Alin,Zhang, Jiachao,Huang, Hongli.

[14]Monitoring of Rapid Urban Sprawl in Beijing with Time Series Remote Sensing Data and Analysis of Driving Forces. Zhao, Jinling,Yang, Yao,Zhang, Dongyan,Huang, Linsheng. 2013

[15]Agricultural crop harvest progress monitoring by fully polarimetric synthetic aperture radar imagery. Yang, Hao,Zhao, Chunjiang,Yang, Guijun,Yuan, Lin,Yang, Xiaodong,Xu, Xingang,Yang, Hao,Li, Zengyuan,Chen, Erxue. 2015

[16]Geo-Parcel Based Crop Identification by Integrating High Spatial-Temporal Resolution Imagery from Multi-Source Satellite Data. Luo, Jiancheng,Gao, Lijing,Dong, Wen,Hu, Xiaodong,Yang, Yingpin,Huang, Qiting,Wu, Wei,Wu, Tianjun. 2017

[17]Valid historical data for probabilistic risk analysis in natural disasters. Guo, Jun,Huang, Chongfu,Guo, Jun,Huang, Chongfu,Guo, Jun,Huang, Chongfu,Guo, Jun,Huang, Chongfu,Zhao, Sijian. 2017

[18]Comparison of greenhouse gas emissions of chemical fertilizer types in China. Zhan-biao Wang,Jing Chen,Shu-chun Mao,Ying-chun Han,Fu Chen,Li-feng Zhang,Ya-bing Li,Cun-dong Li.

[19]Food Security, Food Prices and Climate Change in China: a Dynamic Panel Data Analysis. Wang, Jintian. 2010

[20]Climate change and glacier area variations in China during the past half century. Tian Hong-zhen,He Ying-bin,Tian Hong-zhen,Yang Tai-bao,Lv Hui,Li Cheng-xiu,Li Cheng-xiu,He Ying-bin. 2016

作者其他论文 更多>>
  • Temperature-driven cotton verticillium wilt: a beta model for risk assessment from laboratory insights to climate scenarios

    作者：Zhang, Tianyi;Zhang, Tianyi;Zheng, Bangyou;Xie, Zongming;Xie, Zongming;Zhang, Tao;Feng, Hongjie;Zhou, Jinglong;Ouyang, Fang;Ouyang, Fang

    关键词：verticillium wilt; laboratory; Beta; model validation; climate change; China

  • Biological activity and field efficacy of Bacillus thuringiensis kurstaki strains with protein film adjuvants (PFAs) against Plutella xylostella (Lepidoptera: Plutellidae)

    作者：Zhou, Le;Wang, Yu;Liu, Zi-Yao;Liu, Xiang;Zhai, Zheng;Cao, Sheng-Kai;Zaghloul, Heba A. H.;Yu, Huan;Zhang, Yong-Sheng;Zhou, Le;Wang, Yu;Liu, Zi-Yao;Liu, Xiang;Zhai, Zheng;Yu, Huan;Zhang, Yong-Sheng;Cao, Sheng-Kai;Zhao, Qi-Qiang;Zaghloul, Heba A. H.;Shi, Xiao-Bin;Su, Hao

    关键词：Bacillus thuringiensis; protein film adjuvants; Plutella xylostella; Pieris rapae; control effects

  • The impacts of agricultural intensification and diet diversity on solitary bee exposure to heavy metals

    作者：Shi, Xiaoyu;Liu, Shanlin;Zhou, Qingsong;Ouyang, Fang;Chesters, Douglas;Cheng, Rui;Zhu, Chaodong;Luo, Arong;Orr, Michael;Gustave, Williamson;Ma, Changsheng;Ma, Changsheng;Zhou, Qingsong;Chesters, Douglas;Zhu, Chaodong;Luo, Arong;Wang, Mei;Zhu, Chaodong

    关键词：DNA metabarcoding; Pollinator; Brood provisions; Mason bee

  • Chromosome-level genome of Osmia excavata (Hymenoptera: Megachilidae) provides insights into low-temperature tolerance of Osmia pollinator

    作者：Ouyang, Fang;Guo, Honggang;Ouyang, Fang;Yan, Zhuo;Xiao, Zhishu;Xie, Wen;Song, Yingying;Men, Xingyuan;Peng, Zhenqing;Zhang, Yongsheng;Yuan, Zheming;Qu, Ritao;Xin, Huaigen

    关键词：mason bee; genome; long-read sequencing; Hi-C assembly; low-temperature tolerance

  • Advancements in Integrated Pest Management strategies for Bactrocera dorsalis in Asia: current status, insights, and future prospects

    作者：Wang, Yao-Hui;Dong, Yong-Cheng;Wee, Suk-Ling;De Faveri, Stefano;Gagic, Vesna;Hossain, Shahadath;Cheng, Dai-Feng;Lu, Yong-Yue;Chouangthavy, Bounsanong;Han, Peng;Shi, Wei;Jiang, Hong-Bo;Krutmuang, Patcharin;Lee, Hyoseok;Liu, Xiao-Fei;Sophak, Thun;Ye, Zheng-Pei;Zhang, Xiao-Ming;Zhao, Zi-Hua;Zhou, Ai-Ming;Niu, Chang-Ying;Zhan, Shuai

    关键词：Tephritidae; oriental fruit fly; male annihilation technique (MAT); sterile insect technique (SIT); IPM; control tactics

  • Dynamic trends in maize diseases and pests across six regions in China over two decades

    作者：Cui, Hong-ying;Xiao, Zhi-shu;Ouyang, Fang;Sciligo, Amber;Tan, Xiao-ling;Hui, Cang;Hui, Cang;Zhang, Yong-sheng;Li, Wei;Zhou, Zi-qiao;Peng, Zhen-qing;Ma, Ping;Xiao, Zhi-shu

    关键词：Bivariate trend; Occurrence area; Occurrence degree; Spatiotemporal dynamics

  • Opportunities and challenges in Asian bee research and conservation

    作者：Warrit, Natapot;Chatthanabun, Nontawat;Warrit, Natapot;Chatthanabun, Nontawat;Ascher, John;Basu, Parthib;Basu, Parthib;Belavadi, Vasuki;Brockmann, Axel;Kunte, Krushnamegh;Olsson, Shannon B.;Sane, Sanjay;Buchori, Damayanti;Buchori, Damayanti;Dorey, James B.;Hughes, Alice;Krishnan, Smitha;Ngo, Hien T.;Williams, Paul;Thanoosing, Chawatat;Zhu, Chao-Dong;Chesters, Douglas;Ferrari, Rafael;Luo, Arong;Niu, Zeqing;Shi, Xiaoyu;Orr, Michael;Zhu, Chao-Dong;Ge, Jin;Ouyang, Fang;Zhu, Chao-Dong;Abrol, Dharam;Bawa, Kamal;Bawa, Kamal;Bhatta, Chet;Borges, Renee M.;Bossert, Silas;Bossert, Silas;Cervancia, Cleofas;Chinh, Phung Huu;Devkota, Kedar;Duc, Hanh Pham;Ferrari, Rafael;Garibaldi, Lucas;Garibaldi, Lucas;Ghosh, Dibyajyoti;Huang, Dunyuan;Jung, Chuleui;Jung, Chuleui;Klein, Alexandra-Maria;Sritongchuay, Tuanjit;Koch, Jonathan Berenguer Uhuad;Krichilsky, Erin;Krichilsky, Erin;Krichilsky, Erin;Ling, Tial C.;Liu, Shanlin;Luo, Shiqi;Zhou, Xin;Liu, Xiuwei;Mu, Junpeng;Nidup, Tshering;Nur-Zati, A. Mustafa;Otis, Gard W.;Otis, Gard W.;Otis, Gard W.;Peng, Yan-Qiong;Priawandiputra, Windra;Proshchalykin, Maxim;Rameshkumar, Anandhan;Ren, Zongxin;Suruliraj, Azhagarraja;Sinu, Palatty Allesh;Smith, Deborah R.;Soh, Zestin W. W.;Somananthan, Hema;Sritongchuay, Tuanjit;Stewart, Alyssa B.;Sun, Cheng;Tang, Min;Thanoosing, Chawatat;Tscharntke, Teja;Tscharntke, Teja;Vereecken, Nico;Wang, Su;Wayo, Kanuengnit;Wongsiri, Siriwat;Xie, Zhenghua;Xie, Zhenghua;Zhang, Dan;Zou, Yi;Zu, Pengjuan;Orr, Michael

    关键词：

微信小程序