Modelling adaptation strategies to reduce adverse impacts of climate change on maize cropping system in Northeast China
文献类型： 外文期刊
作者： Jiang, Rong 1 ; He, Wentian 3 ; He, Liang 4 ; Yang, J. Y. 2 ; Qian, B. 5 ; Zhou, Wei 1 ; He, Ping 1 ;
作者机构： 1.Chinese Acad Agr Sci CAAS, Inst Agr Resources & Reg Planning, Key Lab Plant Nutr & Fertilizer, Minist Agr, Beijing 100081, Peoples R China
2.Agr & Agri Food Canada, Harrow Res & Dev Ctr, 2585 Cty Rd, Harrow, ON N0R 1G0, Canada
3.Beijing Acad Agr & Forestry Sci, Inst Plant Nutr & Resources, Beijing 100097, Peoples R China
4.Natl Meteorol Ctr, Beijing 100081, Peoples R China
5.Agr & Agri Food Canada, Ottawa Res & Dev Ctr, 960 Carling Ave, Ottawa, ON K1A 0C6, Canada
期刊名称：SCIENTIFIC REPORTS （ 影响因子：4.379； 五年影响因子：5.133 ）
ISSN： 2045-2322
年卷期： 2021 年 11 卷 1 期
页码：
收录情况： SCI
摘要： Maize (Zea mays L.) production in Northeast China is vulnerable to climate change. Thus, exploring future adaptation measures for maize is crucial to developing sustainable agriculture to ensure food security. The current study was undertaken to evaluate the impacts of climate change on maize yield and partial factor productivity of nitrogen (PFPN) and explore potential adaptation strategies in Northeast China. The Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT) model was calibrated and validated using the measurements from nine maize experiments. DSSAT performed well in simulating maize yield, biomass and N uptake for both calibration and validation periods (normalized root mean square error (nRMSE) <10%, -5% < normalized average relative error (nARE) <5% and index of agreement (d)>0.8). Compared to the baseline (1980-2010), the average maize yields and PFPN would decrease by 7.6-32.1% and 3.6-14.0 kg N kg(-1) respectively under future climate scenarios (2041-2070 and 2071-2100) without adaptation. Optimizing N application rate and timing, establishing rotation system with legumes, adjusting planting dates and breeding long-season cultivars could be effective adaptation strategies to climate change. This study demonstrated that optimizing agronomic crop management practices would assist to make policy development on mitigating the negative impacts of future climate change on maize production.
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