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Climate change impacts on regional rice production in China

文献类型： 外文期刊

作者： Lv, Zunfu 1 ; Zhu, Yan 2 ; Liu, Xiaojun 2 ; Ye, Hongbao 3 ; Tian, Yongchao 2 ; Li, Feifei 1 ;

作者机构： 1.Zhejiang A&F Univ, Dept Agron, Coll Agr & Food Sci, Key Lab Qual Improvement Agr Prod Zhejiang Prov, Hangzhou 311300, Zhejiang, Peoples R China

2.Nanjing Agr Univ, Natl Engn & Technol Ctr Informat Agr, Jiangsu Key Lab Informat Agr, 1 Weigang Rd, Nanjing 210095, Jiangsu, Peoples R China

3.Zhejiang Acad Agr Sci, Inst Digital Agr, Shiqiao Rd, Hangzhou 310021, Zhejiang, Peoples R China

关键词： Climate change; Global climate model; Grid; Rice yield; Sowing date

期刊名称：CLIMATIC CHANGE （ 影响因子：4.743； 五年影响因子：5.633 ）

ISSN： 0165-0009

年卷期： 2018 年 147 卷 3-4 期

页码：

收录情况： SCI

摘要： Rice (Oryza sativa L.) production is an important contributor to China's food security. Climate change, and its impact on rice production, presents challenges in meeting China's future rice production requirements. In this study, we conducted a comprehensive analysis of how rice yield responds to climate change under different scenarios and assessed the associated simulation uncertainties of various regional-scale climate models. Simulation was performed based on a regional calibrated crop model (CERES-Rice) and spatially matched climatic (from 17 global climate models), soil, management, and cultivar parameters. Grain-filling periods for early rice were shortened by 2-7 days in three time slices (2030s, 2050s, and 2070s), whereas grain-filling periods for late rice were shortened by 10-19 days in three time slices. Most of the negative effects of climate change were predicted to affect single-crop rice in central China. Average yields of single-crop rice treated with CO2 fertiliser in central China were predicted to be reduced by 10, 11, and 11% during the 2030s, 2050s, and 2070s, respectively, compared to the 2000s, if planting dates remained unchanged. If planting dates were optimised, single-crop rice yields were predicted to increase by 3, 7, and 11% during the 2030s, 2050s, and 2070s, respectively. In response to climate changes, early and single-crop rice should be planted earlier, and late rice planting should be delayed. The predicted net effect would be to prolong the grain-filling period and optimise rice yield.

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