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Effects of Climate Change on Epidemics of Powdery Mildew in Winter Wheat in China

文献类型： 外文期刊

作者： Tang, Xiuli 2 ; Cao, Xueren 1 ; Xu, Xiangming 4 ; Jiang, Yuying 5 ; Luo, Yong 2 ; Ma, Zhanhong 2 ; Fan, Jieru 1 ; Zhou, Y 1 ;

作者机构： 1.Chinese Acad Agr Sci, Inst Plant Protect, State Key Lab Biol Plant Dis & Insect Pests, Beijing 100193, Peoples R China

2.China Agr Univ, Dept Plant Pathol, Beijing 100193, Peoples R China

3.Chinese Acad Trop Agr Sci, Environm & Plant Protect Inst, Key Lab Integrated Pest Management Trop Crops, Minist Agr, Haikou 571001, Hainan, Peoples R China

4.NIAB East Malling Res, New Rd, East Malling ME19 6BJ, Kent, England

5.Natl Agrotech Extens & Serv Ctr, Beijing 100125, Peoples R China

期刊名称：PLANT DISEASE （ 影响因子：4.438； 五年影响因子：4.7 ）

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收录情况： SCI

摘要： Powdery mildew is a highly destructive winter wheat pathogen in China. Since the causative agent is sensitive to changing weather conditions, we analyzed climatic records from regions with previous wheat powdery mildew epidemics (1970 to 2012) and investigated the long-term effects of climate change on the percent acreage (PA) of the disease. Then, using PA and the pathogen's temperature requirements, we constructed a multi regression model to predict changes in epidemics during the 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s under representative concentration pathways RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5. Mean monthly air temperature increased from 1970 to 2012, whereas hours of sunshine and relative humidity decreased (P < 0.001). Year-to-year temperature changes were negatively associated with those of PA during oversummering and late spring periods of disease epidemics, whereas positive relationships were noted for other periods, and year-to-year changes in relative humidity were correlated with PA changes in the early spring period of disease epidemics (P < 0.001). Our models also predicted that PA would increase less under RCP2.6 (14.43%) than under RCP4.5 (14.51%) by the 2020s but would be higher by the 2050s and 2080s and would increase least under RCP8.5 (14.37% by the 2020s). Powdery mildew will, thus, pose an even greater threat to China's winter wheat production in the future.

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