文献类型： 外文期刊

作者： Zhou, Hongkui ¹ ; Huang, Fudeng ² ; Lou, Weidong ¹ ; Gu, Qing ¹ ; Ye, Ziran ¹ ; Hu, Hao ¹ ; Zhang, Xiaobin ¹ ;

作者机构： 1.Zhejiang Acad Agr Sci, Inst Digital Agr, Hangzhou 310021, Zhejiang, Peoples R China

2.Zhejiang Acad Agr Sci, Inst Crop & Nucl Technol Utilizat, Hangzhou 310021, Zhejiang, Peoples R China

关键词： UAV; Yield prediction; Multispectral imaging; Deep learning; Rice breeding

期刊名称：AGRICULTURAL SYSTEMS （ 影响因子：6.1； 五年影响因子：7.0 ）

ISSN： 0308-521X

年卷期： 2025 年 223 卷

页码：

收录情况： SCI

摘要： Context: Predicting crop yields with high precision and timeliness is essential for crop breeding, enabling the optimization of planting strategies and efficients resource allocation while ensuring food security. Current research in this field typically does not address the problem of yield prediction in the diverse context of breeding experiments involving numerous varieties. However, evaluating the performance of prediction models across multiple varieties is vital for further model refining and enhancing model robustness and adaptability. Objective: This study aims to evaluate the performance of feature- and image-based yield prediction models for yields with multiple varieties to compare their capabilities and determine an appropriate timing for early yield prediction. Methods: This study combines unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV)-based multispectral remote sensing imagery with machine learning and deep learning-based algorithms to develop rice yield prediction models across multiple varieties. The performances of both feature- and image-based models are evaluated. The feature-based models considered in this study include random forest (RF), deep neural network (DNN), and long short-term memory (LSTM) algorithms, and the image-based models are convolutional neural network (CNN) architectures, including both two-dimensional (2D) and three-dimensional (3D) CNN models. To assess the performance of the multi-variety crop yield prediction models thoroughly, this study considers two sampling scenarios: stratified sampling and group sampling. Results and conclusions: The results show that the image-based deep learning models outperform the feature-based machine learning models, which indicates their superior robustness in multi-variety scenarios and highlights their significant potential of directly extracting spatiotemporal features from images for yield prediction. The results indicate that the multi-temporal 2D CNN model (i.e., the CNN-M2D model) can achieve the best yield prediction performance among all models, achieving RRMSE = 8.13 % and R2 = 0.73. The prediction results also demonstrate good consistency with the observed data, indicating an efficient capturing of spatial pattern variations in yield across different varieties. Based on the results, with the crops progressing along the growth stages, the accuracy of the yield prediction models improves gradually, achieving the best prediction performance during the flowering to grain-filling stage. Finally, according to the results, the optimal lead time for predicting rice yield is approximately one month before harvest. Significance: Our study can provide a reference for the research community in yield prediction and high-yield variety selection in breeding trials.