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Monetary Policy and the Price Volatility of Natural and Synthetic Rubber in China

文献类型: 会议论文

第一作者: Liu Ruijin

作者: Liu Ruijin 1 ;

作者机构: 1.Rubber Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Tropical Agricultural Sciences (CATAS), Danzhou, Hainan 571737, People's Republic of China

关键词: Monetary policy;Natural rubber;Synthetic rubber;Prices;VAR models

会议名称: World Agricultural Outlook Conference

主办单位:

页码: 77-96

摘要: Firstly, this paper gives two hypotheses about the impact of monetary policy on natural and synthetic rubber prices through theoretical and empirical analysis, and then validates the hypotheses based on monthly data from January 2000 to March 2013, using Vector Auto-Regression (VAR) and its extended models, which sort the variables in VAR models by Granger causality test and use generalized impulse functions. The results show that: the money supply and credit scale indices have long-run equilibrium relationships with natural and synthetic rubber prices, and loose monetary policy can boost the prices in the medium-long term; the variables about money supply and load scale have weak explanatory power for natural and synthetic rubber prices in short-term, and the proportions contributing to the forecast variances are no more than 10 % in the early 7 months after shocks; the impact on synthetic rubber prices from monetary policy is stronger than on natural rubber.

分类号: F316.11-532

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