Climate change enhances stability of wheat-flowering-date

文献类型： 外文期刊

第一作者： He, Yong

作者： He, Yong;Xiong, Wei;Hu, Pengcheng;Hu, Pengcheng;Huang, Daiqing;Feurtado, J. Allan;Zhang, Tianyi;Hao, Chenyang;DePauw, Ron;Zheng, Bangyou;Hoogenboom, Gerrit;Dixonj, Laura E.;Wang, Hong;Challinor, Andrew Juan

作者机构：

关键词： Wheat flowering date stability; Crop modeling; Vernalization; Photoperiod; Climate change

期刊名称：SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT （ 影响因子：9.8； 五年影响因子：9.6 ）

ISSN： 0048-9697

年卷期： 2024 年 917 卷

页码：

收录情况： SCI

摘要： projected future climate conditions will affect flowering date stability, and identify the most stable wheat genotypes in the study region. We applied a multi -locus genotype -based (MLG-based) model for simulating wheatflowering -dates, which we calibrated and evaluated using observed data from the Northern China winter wheat region (NCWWR). This MLG-based model was employed to project flowering dates under different climate scenarios. The simulated flowering dates were then used to assess the stability of flowering dates under varying allelic combinations in projected climatic conditions. Our MLG-based model effectively simulated flowering dates, with a root mean square error (RMSE) of 2.3 days, explaining approximately 88.5 % of the genotypic variation in flowering dates among 100 wheat genotypes. We found that, in comparison to the baseline climate, wheat -flowering -dates are expected to shift earlier within the target sowing window by approximately 11 and 14 days by 2050 under the Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 (RCP4.5) and RCP8.5 climate scenarios, respectively. Furthermore, our analysis revealed that wheat -flowering -date stability is likely to be further strengthened under projected climate scenarios due to early flowering trends. Ultimately, we demonstrate that the combination of Vrn and Ppd genes, rather than individual Vrn or Ppd genes, plays a critical role in wheatflowering -date stability. Our results suggest that the combination of Ppd-D1a with winter genotypes carrying the vrn-D1 allele significantly contributes to flowering date stability under current and projected climate scenarios. These findings provide valuable insights for wheat breeders and producers under future climatic conditions.

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