The impact of climate change on livestock production in pastoral areas of China

文献类型： 外文期刊

第一作者： Feng, Xiaolong

作者： Feng, Xiaolong;Feng, Xiaolong;Qiu, Huanguang;Tang, Jianjun;Pan, Jie

作者机构：

关键词： Livestock production; Climate change; Hsiao two-step method; China

期刊名称：SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT （ 影响因子：7.963； 五年影响因子：7.842 ）

ISSN： 0048-9697

年卷期： 2021 年 770 卷

页码：

收录情况： SCI

摘要： This study assesses the impacts of climate change on net livestock revenue, grazing intensity, and net revenue per livestock, based on a panel dataset of 959 herder households from 18 counties in three major pastoral provinces in China. The Ricardian model and the Hsiao two-step method are applied to quantify the impacts on household-level livestock production made by long-term changes of temperature and precipitation and shortterm occurrence of natural disasters. The results indicate that long-termtemperature leads to decreased net livestock revenue and net revenue per livestock, whereas long-term precipitation improves revenue per livestock. Next, both long-term annual temperature and precipitation result in an increase of grazing intensity. A further analysis based on the simulation of future climate change predicts that the future increase in temperature will have a negative influence on both net revenue and net revenue per livestock, while the precipitation increment will have a positive effect on livestock production. (C) 2021 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

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