Agricultural water allocation with climate change based on gray wolf optimization in a semi-arid region of China

文献类型： 外文期刊

第一作者： Wang, Zhidong

作者： Wang, Zhidong;Zhao, Xining;Zhao, Xining;Wang, Jinglei;Song, Ni;Han, Qisheng

作者机构：

关键词： Semi-arid land; Climate scenarios; Allocation of land and water resources; Multi-objective programming; Grey wolf optimization; Analytic hierarchy process

期刊名称：PEERJ （ 影响因子：2.7； 五年影响因子：3.1 ）

ISSN： 2167-8359

年卷期： 2023 年 10 卷

页码：

收录情况： SCI

摘要： Background. We quantified and evaluated the allocation of soil and water resources in the Aksu River Basin to measure the consequences of climate change on an agricultural irrigation system. Methods. We first simulated future climate scenarios in the Aksu River Basin by using a statistical downscaling model (SDSM). We then formulated the optimal allocation scheme of agricultural water as a multiobjective optimization problem and obtained the Pareto optimal solution using the multi-objective grey wolf optimizer (MOGWO). Finally, optimal allocations of water and land resources in the basin at different times were obtained using an analytic hierarchy process (AHP).Results. (1) The SDSM is able to simulate future climate change scenarios in the Aksu River Basin. Evapotranspiration (ET0) will increase significantly with variation as will the amount of available water albeit slightly. (2) To alleviate water pressure, the area of cropland should be reduced by 127.5 km2 under RCP4.5 and 377.2 km2 under RCP8.5 scenarios. (3) To be sustainable, the allocation ratio of forest land and water body should increase to 39% of the total water resource in the Aksu River Basin by 2050.

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