Agroclimatic conditions in China under climate change scenarios projected from regional climate models

文献类型： 外文期刊

第一作者： Tian, Zhan

作者： Tian, Zhan;Liang, Zhuoran;Yang, Xuchao;Yang, Xuchao;Sun, Laixiang;Sun, Laixiang;Fischer, Guenther;Sun, Laixiang;Pan, Jie

作者机构：

关键词： agroclimatic conditions;regional climate model;AEZ model;climate change

期刊名称：INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY （ 影响因子：4.069； 五年影响因子：5.08 ）

ISSN：

年卷期：

页码：

收录情况： SCI

摘要： The recent warming trends have led to rising concerns on how the changing climate has been altering and will continue to alter agroclimatic conditions in China. In this study, high resolution climate scenarios from regional climate models (RCMs) are used as input to the agro-ecological zones (AEZ) model for China and to compute a comprehensive set of agroclimatic indicators. Uncertainties in the projected impacts of climate change on agroclimatic conditions are also discussed with respect to (1) RCM outputs for different emission scenarios, and (2) differences in projections obtained from two different RCMs under the same emission scenario. The results indicate a significant extension of the crop growing period in tandem with the rising temperatures during the crop growing season, which may lead to increase in multi-cropping opportunities at high latitudes and thus advance the total potential output per unit of cropland. However, the results show that the Southwest China will experience a significant reduction in the value of humidity index, implying severe challenges for future agricultural development in the region. Spatially explicit patterns of changes in future agroclimatic conditions, as revealed in this study, can be beneficial for policy-makers, farming communities and other stakeholders to assess risk factors, design adaptation and mitigation measures, and improve management practices at the local to regional scales.

分类号： P46

  • 相关文献

[1]Projections of Wind Changes for 21st Century in China by Three Regional Climate Models. Jiang Ying,Luo Yong,Zhao Zongci,Shi Ying,Jiang Ying,Zhao Zongci,Jiang Ying,Luo Yong,Zhao Zongci,Shi Ying,Xu Yinlong,Zhu Jinhong. 2010

[2]Validating the runoff from the PRECIS model using a large-scale routing model. Cao, Lijuan,Dong, Wenjie,Xu, Yinlong,Zhang, Yong,Sparrow, Michael. 2007

[3]Comparison of greenhouse gas emissions of chemical fertilizer types in China. Zhan-biao Wang,Jing Chen,Shu-chun Mao,Ying-chun Han,Fu Chen,Li-feng Zhang,Ya-bing Li,Cun-dong Li.

[4]Food Security, Food Prices and Climate Change in China: a Dynamic Panel Data Analysis. Wang, Jintian. 2010

[5]Climate change and glacier area variations in China during the past half century. Tian Hong-zhen,He Ying-bin,Tian Hong-zhen,Yang Tai-bao,Lv Hui,Li Cheng-xiu,Li Cheng-xiu,He Ying-bin. 2016

[6]NDVI-Based Long-Term Vegetation Dynamics and Its Response to Climatic Change in the Mongolian Plateau. Bao, Gang,Zhou, Yi,Bao, Gang,Bao, Yuhai,Qin, Zhihao,Li, Wenjuan,Sanjjav, Amarjargal. 2014

[7]Evaluation of changes in ecological security in China's Qinghai Lake Basin from 2000 to 2013 and the relationship to land use and climate change. Wang, Hong,Li, Xiaobing,Yu, Feng,Long, Huiling. 2014

[8]Sustainable bioenergy production with little carbon debt in the Loess Plateau of China. Liu, Wei,Sang, Tao,Peng, Cheng,Chen, Zhifen,Liu, Yue,Yan, Juan,Li, Jianqiang,Sang, Tao,Sang, Tao. 2016

[9]Progressive and active adaptations of cropping system to climate change in Northeast China. Chen, Changqing,Qian, Chunrong,Zhang, Weijian,Deng, Aixing,Zhang, Weijian. 2012

[10]Effects of climate change and cultivar on summer maize phenology. Chen, F.,Wang, Zh.,Chen, J.,Li, Y.,Wang, Zh.,Li, C.,Zhang, L.. 2016

[11]Simulating the Impacts of Global Warming on Wheat in China Using a Large Area Crop Model. Li Sanai,Li Sanai,Wheeler, Tim,Challinor, Andrew,Lin Erda,Xu Yinlong,Ju Hui. 2010

[12]Spatiotemporal variation of drought characteristics in the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain, China under the climate change scenario. Li Xiang-xiang,Ju Hui,Yan Chang-rong,Liu Qin,Li Xiang-xiang,Garre, Sarah,Liu Qin,Batchelor, William D.. 2017

[13]Application of GIS technology to build climatic scene in 2036 and 2056 in China. Xu, B,Chen, ZX,Qin, ZH,Liu, J,Yang, XC,Xin, XP. 2005

[14]Weakening density dependence from climate change and agricultural intensification triggers pest outbreaks: a 37-year observation of cotton bollworms. Ouyang, Fang,Zhang, Yong-Sheng,Hui, Cang,Ge, Saiying,Men, Xin-Yuan,Zhao, Zi-Hua,Shi, Pei-Jian,Zhang, Yong-Sheng,Li, Bai-Lian. 2014

[15]The Current and Future Potential Geographical Distribution of the Solanum Fruit Fly, Bactrocera latifrons (Diptera: Tephritidae) in China. Li, Zhihong,Ni, Wenlong,Qu, Weiwei,Wu, Jiajiao,Hu, Xuenan,Wan, Fanghao. 2012

[16]Effects of elevated CO2 on the interspecific competition between two sympatric species of Aphis gossypii and Bemisia tabaci fed on transgenic Bt cotton. Li, Zhi-Yi,Chen, Fa-Jun,Liu, Tong-Jin,Xiao, Neng-Wen,Li, Jun-Sheng. 2011

[17]Projecting regional climate and cropland changes using a linked biogeophysical-socioeconomic modeling framework: 1. Model description and an equilibrium application over West Africa. Wang, Guiling,Ahmed, Kazi Farzan,Yu, Miao,Ji, Zhenming,You, Liangzhi,You, Liangzhi,Yu, Miao,Pal, Jeremy,Ji, Zhenming. 2017

[18]Daily temperature extremes play an important role in predicting thermal effects. Ma, Chun-Sen,Hoffmann, Ary A.,Hoffmann, Ary A..

[19]Response of soil enzyme activity to warming and nitrogen addition in a meadow steppe. Gong, Shiwei,Zhang, Tao,Cao, Hongbin,Shi, Lianxuan,Guo, Jixun,Sun, Wei,Guo, Rui.

[20]No changes in contributions of echinoderms to the carbon budgets in shelf seas of China over the past five decades. Jin, Shaofei,Xiong, Zhe,Jin, Shaofei,Yan, Xiaodong,Zhang, Heng,Xiao, Ning,Zhang, Junlong,Liu, Wenliang.

作者其他论文 更多>>

微信小程序