Evaluating Agricultural Catastrophe Risk in Guangdong Province

文献类型： 外文期刊

第一作者： Xu, Lei

作者： Xu, Lei;Xu, Lei

作者机构：

关键词： Agricultural catastrophe;Risk assessment;Guangdong province

期刊名称：PROCEEDINGS OF THE 22ND INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE ON INDUSTRIAL ENGINEERING AND ENGINEERING MANAGEMENT: INNOVATION AND PRACTICE IN INDUSTRIAL ENGINEERING AND MANAGEMENT (VOL 2)

ISSN：

年卷期： 2016 年

页码：

收录情况： SCI

摘要： This paper evaluates agricultural catastrophe risk in Guangdong province based on the approach of agricultural catastrophe risk assessment, which can be shown as the process of crop loss collection, Monte Carlo simulation, the generalized extreme value distribution (GEV) fitting, and risk calculation. The Type III Extreme distribution (Weibull) has a weighted advantage of modeling agricultural catastrophe risk for crop production. The impact of typhoon catastrophe to crop production in Guangdong province was serious. Given the scenario of suffering once-in-a-century typhoon disaster in Guangdong province, the probability of 10 % reduction in crop production reached more than 14.168 %. In addition, the risk of drought and flood catastrophe in Guangdong province was not very serious.

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