Research on Fruit Market Price Risk Thresholds in China

文献类型： 外文期刊

第一作者： Zhao, Junye

作者： Zhao, Junye;Zhang, Qiao;Zhao, Junye;Zhang, Qiao

作者机构：

关键词： fruit;market risk;price;risk threshold;percentile threshold value method

期刊名称：INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY FOR RISK ANALYSIS AND CRISIS RESPONSE

ISSN： 1951-6851

年卷期： 2014 年 102 卷

页码：

收录情况： SCI

摘要： Taking the monthly wholesale price of Fuji apple and citrus of China's fruit market during 2000-2013 as the research object, using Census X12 seasonal adjustment method and HP filter, the long trend and seasonal, cyclical, irregular characteristics of fruit price fluctuation were analyzed, and the fruit price trend value was got. Seeing the deviation of fruit price actual value to trend value as a fruit market price of risk, fitting the optimal probability distribution model of it, the relative thresholds of price risk were determined using percentile method. It was found that both the price of Fuji apple and of citrus have obvious seasonality and long-term trends. Fuji apple price risk obeyed Log-Logistic distribution, and citrus price risk obeyed Beta distribution. By compute the price deviation of 10%, 90%, 25% and 75% percentile respectively, the relative thresholds of abnormal price increase and abnormal descent were got, as well as normal range of fruit price. The empirical analysis showed that the method can be used to identify and analyze the price risk of fruit quantitatively.

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