Risk Assessment of Typhoon Catastrophe for Grain Production in the South-eastern Coastal Areas of China

文献类型： 外文期刊

第一作者： Xu, Lei

作者： Xu, Lei

作者机构：

关键词： Typhoon catastrophe;Risk assessment;Block maxima model (BMM);South-eastern coastal areas of China;Grain production

期刊名称：NEW PERSPECTIVES ON RISK ANALYSIS AND MANAGEMENT FOR MARINE SYSTEMS

ISSN： 1951-6851

年卷期： 2014 年 103 卷

页码：

收录情况： SCI

摘要： Based on the Extreme value theory (EVT), this paper defined typhoon catastrophe as once-in-a-century typhoon disaster, and developed risk assessment methodology of typhoon catastrophe for grain production from the perspective of typhoon catastrophe losses, which can be shown as the standard process of crop loss calculation, Monte Carlo simulation, the generalized extreme value distribution (GEV) fitting, and risk evaluation. This paper put forward to make theoretical and empirical model of risk assessment of typhoon catastrophe for grain production in the south-eastern coastal areas of China based on BMM approach. Our results demonstrated that the Type III extreme distribution has a weighted advantage of modeling typhoon catastrophe for grain production losses. Given the scenario of suffering typhoon catastrophe, the grain-production loss ratios in the south-eastern coastal areas of China (Zhejiang, Fujian, Guangdong, Hainan) fall into the interval mostly from 5 to 15 percent which represents a high probability of occurrence, and particular attention should be paid to Hainan province, the probability of 15% reduction of grain output is 100%. Results can provide technical reference about assessment of typhoon catastrophe and help to guide disaster prevention and reduction of grain production in the south-eastern coastal areas of China.

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