Evaluating Agricultural Catastrophic Risk: A New Approach

文献类型： 外文期刊

第一作者： Xu, Lei

作者： Xu, Lei;Zhang, Qiao

作者机构：

关键词： Agricultural catastrophe;Risk assessment;Agricultural loss data;Monte Carlo simulation;POT;VaR

期刊名称：BEYOND EXPERIENCE IN RISK ANALYSIS AND CRISIS RESPONSE

ISSN： 1951-6851

年卷期： 2011 年 16 卷

页码：

收录情况： SCI

摘要： This paper provides a new evaluation approach to agricultural catastrophic risk. Data on agricultural disaster loss are collected based on hectares covered by natural disasters, hectares affected by natural disasters, and hectares destroyed by natural disasters using the standard process, and Monte Carlo simulation is used to expand sample size. Peak over threshold (POT) approach based on the extreme value theory is used to model the distribution of agricultural catastrophic loss, and value at risk (VaR) is used to assess agricultural catastrophic risk. The empirical research proves that such approach is appropriate and feasible.

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