Dose institutional openness improve the trade efficiency of China's agricultural products imported from Central Asian countries? A time-varying stochastic frontier gravity model

文献类型： 外文期刊

第一作者： Cao, Fangfang

作者： Cao, Fangfang;Li, Xiande;Zhang, Zhexi

作者机构：

关键词： Central Asian countries; uncertainty; institutional openness; agricultural trade; trade efficiency

期刊名称：FRONTIERS IN SUSTAINABLE FOOD SYSTEMS （ 影响因子：3.1； 五年影响因子：4.6 ）

ISSN：

年卷期： 2025 年 9 卷

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收录情况： SCI

摘要： Introduction Institutional openness is becoming increasingly important for agricultural trade between China and Central Asian countries.Methods This study employs a time-varying stochastic frontier gravity model to investigate the influence of institutional openness on the trade efficiency of China imported agricultural products from Central Asian countries under uncertainty, and further computes the import potential from 2000 to 2022.Results The research reveals that the impacts of different aspects of institutional openness on trade efficiency vary. Firstly, in terms of border opening measures, the joint accession to the WTO and the signing and implementation of the "Belt and Road Initiative" have effectively enhanced China's import trade of agricultural products from Central Asian countries. Secondly, regarding the impact of infrastructure, a higher efficiency of trade logistics clearance and a lower tariff are more beneficial for improving the trade efficiency. Thirdly, as for the degree of openness of the socio-economic system, a higher level of economic freedom in Central Asian countries societies are more conducive to promoting the export of agricultural products to China. Additionally, a higher uncertainty of China's economic policies may enhance the trade efficiency. However, the outbreak of the COVID19 and the Russia-Ukraine war have significantly diminished the trade efficiency. Fourthly, from 2015 to 2022, China's average export trade efficiency to Central Asian countries range from 0.3 to 0.6, with an import potential value of approximately 2.1 to 2.2 billion US dollars, indicating substantial import potential, especially for Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan.Discussion It is recommended to implement the "Belt and Road Initiative", enhance the logistics infrastructure, improve the efficiency of trade clearance, reduce the tariff burden on agricultural products, and stabilize the trade expectations of Central Asian countries under the unstable external economic environment, thereby enhancing the efficiency of agricultural trade between China and Central Asia countries.

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