The Impact of Snowstorms, Droughts and Locust Outbreaks on Livestock Production in Inner Mongolia: Anticipation and Adaptation to Environmental Shocks

文献类型： 外文期刊

第一作者： Crook, David R.

作者： Crook, David R.;Robinson, Brian E.;Li, Ping

作者机构：

关键词： Climate change; Shocks; Extreme events; Adaptation; Stocking rate; Pastoralism; Livestock market; Impact evaluation; China

期刊名称：ECOLOGICAL ECONOMICS （ 影响因子：5.389； 五年影响因子：6.233 ）

ISSN： 0921-8009

年卷期： 2020 年 177 卷

页码：

收录情况： SCI

摘要： Unanticipated environmental shocks impact the livelihoods of many resource users around the world. These shocks are likely to be more unpredictable as the effects of climate change continue to mount. Yet how households adapt to these changing climatic conditions especially in the context of rapidly changing market conditions in most areas of the world, is poorly understood. These interactions have wide implications for both smallholder livelihoods and sustainable use of natural resources. In this paper, we examine the relationship between environmental shocks and stocking rates in livestock herds in the Inner Mongolian grasslands of northern China. We uniquely examine three types of shocks and how households adapt livestock production strategies in response to each. Separately and in aggregate, we look at three common shocks in Inner Mongolia: droughts, snowstorms, and locust outbreaks. We use a difference-in-differences approach to estimate changes in stocking rates among households that experience shocks versus those that do not with a panel dataset from 2009 to 2014 of 597 households. While we find no clear impact from locusts, our results suggest droughts and snowstorms have opposite effects: droughts are associated with increases in herd sizes, but snowstorms result in decreased herds. We suggest these differences are due to interactions between shocks, emerging options to borrow on credit, and livestock markets. Household adaptation to climate change will be strategic and take advantage of both available resources as well as market conditions.

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