Simulating the changes of the habitats suitability of chub mackerel ( Scomber japonicus) ) in the high seas of the North Pacific Ocean using ensemble models under medium to long-term future climate scenarios
文献类型： 外文期刊
作者： Sun, Yuyan 1 ; Zhang, Heng 1 ; Jiang, Keji 1 ; Xiang, Delong 1 ; Shi, Yongchuang 1 ; Huang, Sisi 1 ; Li, Yang 1 ; Han, Haibin 1 ;
作者机构： 1.Minist Agr & Rural Affairs, Key Lab Ocean & Polar Fisheries, Shanghai 200090, Peoples R China
2.Chinese Acad Fishery Sci, East China Sea Fisheries Res Inst, Shanghai 200090, Peoples R China
3.Qingdao Marine Sci & Technol Ctr, Laoshan Lab, Qingdao, Peoples R China
4.Shanghai Ocean Univ, Coll Marine Living Resource Sci & Management, Shanghai, Peoples R China
5.Dalian Ocean Univ, Coll Nav & Ship Engn, Dalian 116023, Liaoning, Peoples R China
关键词： Chub mackerel; Species distribution models (SDMs); Ensemble model; Climate change; Habitat suitability
期刊名称：MARINE POLLUTION BULLETIN （ 影响因子：4.9； 五年影响因子：5.6 ）
ISSN： 0025-326X
年卷期： 2024 年 207 卷
页码：
收录情况： SCI
摘要： Understanding and forecasting changes in marine habitats due to global climate warming is crucial for sustainable fisheries. Using future environmental data provided by Global Climate Models (GCMs) and occurrence records of Chub mackerel in the North Pacific Ocean (2014-2023), we built eight individual models and four ensemble models to simulate current habitat distribution and forecast changes under three future climate scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP5-8.5) for the 2050s and 2100s. Ensemble models outperformed individual ones, with the weighted average algorithm model achieving the highest accuracy (AUC 0.994, TSS 0.929). Sea Surface Temperature (SST) and chlorophyll-a (Chla) significantly influenced habitat distribution. Predictions indicate current high suitability areas for Chub mackerel are concentrated beyond the 200-nautical-mile baseline. Under future climate scenarios, habitat suitability is expected to decline, with a shift towards higher latitudes and deeper waters. High suitability areas will be significantly reduced.
- 相关文献
作者其他论文 更多>>
-
Response of diatoms to environmental changes in the Porphyra cultivation system in Haizhou Bay using GBT model and GAM
作者：Chen, Shuo;Han, Haibin;Chen, Shuo;Yu, Jinchen;Sun, Tao;Zhou, Jin
关键词：Phytoplankton community structure; Diatoms; GBT model; GAM; Haizhou Bay; Porphyra cultivation
-
Effects of western boundary currents and sea surface temperature anomalies on interannual variability of chub mackerel abundance in the Northwest Pacific
作者：Li, Jiasheng;Zhou, Weifeng;Dai, Yang;Tang, Fenghua;Wu, Yumei;Zhang, Heng;Fan, Xiumei;Cui, Xuesen;Li, Jiasheng
关键词：Chub mackerel; Abundance; Kuroshio; Oyashio; Sea surface temperature anomaly; Northwest Pacific
-
Comparative Analysis of Prediction Models for Trawling Grounds of the Argentine Shortfin Squid Illex argentinus in the Southwest Atlantic High Seas Based on Vessel Position and Fishing Log Data
作者：Xiang, Delong;Sun, Yuyan;Zhu, Hanji;Wang, Jianhua;Huang, Sisi;Zhang, Shengmao;Zhang, Famou;Zhang, Heng;Xiang, Delong;Sun, Yuyan;Huang, Sisi;Zhang, Shengmao;Zhang, Famou;Zhang, Heng;Xiang, Delong;Sun, Yuyan;Huang, Sisi;Zhang, Shengmao;Zhang, Famou;Zhang, Heng;Zhu, Hanji;Wang, Jianhua
关键词：Southwest Atlantic;
Illex argentinus ; AIS; deep learning; fishing ground prediction -
Evaluation Method for Artificial Reefs Based on Multi-Object Tracking
作者：Wu, Zuli;Song, Yifan;Cui, Xuesen;Zhang, Shengmao;Quan, Weimin;Shi, Yongchuang;Xiong, Xinquan;Li, Penglong;Wu, Zuli;Cui, Xuesen;Zhang, Shengmao;Quan, Weimin;Shi, Yongchuang;Song, Yifan;Xiong, Xinquan;Li, Penglong
关键词：artificial reef; sonar images; multi-object tracking (MOT) algorithm; three-dimensional position evaluation
-
Biocompatible Protein/Liquid Metal Hydrogel-Enabled Wearable Electronics for Monitoring Marine Inhabitants' Health
作者：Wu, Lidong;Zhao, Jinxue;Li, Yuanxin;Qin, Haiyang;Zhai, Xuejing;Li, Peiyi;Wu, Lidong;Zhao, Jinxue;Qin, Haiyang;Li, Peiyi;Wu, Lidong;Zhao, Jinxue;Qin, Haiyang;Li, Peiyi;Li, Yuanxin;Zhai, Xuejing;Li, Yang;Liu, Yingnan;Chen, Ningyue;Li, Yuan;Chen, Ningyue;Li, Yuan
关键词：Marine inhabitants health; Aquaculture; Keratin hydrogel; Liquid metal; Wearable electronics
-
The Effects of Climate Change on Sthenoteuthis oualaniensis Habitats in the Northern Indian Ocean
作者：Wen, Lihong;Fang, Zhou;Chen, Xinjun;Wen, Lihong;Zhang, Heng;Fang, Zhou;Chen, Xinjun;Fang, Zhou;Chen, Xinjun;Fang, Zhou;Chen, Xinjun
关键词：climate change; environmental factors;
Sthenoteuthis oualaniensis ; habitat; northern Indian Ocean -
Simulation and Identification of the Habitat of Antarctic Krill Based on Vessel Position Data and Integrated Species Distribution Model: A Case Study of Pumping-Suction Beam Trawl Fishing Vessels
作者：Zhang, Heng;Sun, Yuyan;Zhu, Hanji;Xiang, Delong;Wang, Jianhua;Zhang, Famou;Huang, Sisi;Li, Yang;Zhang, Heng;Xiang, Delong;Huang, Sisi;Zhang, Heng;Zhu, Hanji;Wang, Jianhua;Li, Yang;Sun, Yuyan;Xiang, Delong;Zhang, Famou;Huang, Sisi
关键词：Antarctic krill; vessel position data; environmental data; species distribution model; habitat research
