Probabilistic human health risk assessment of PCDD/Fs near municipal solid-waste incinerator using Monte Carlo analysis coupled with triangular fuzzy numbers
文献类型： 外文期刊
作者： Fan, Qing-fang 1 ; Liu, Li -jun 3 ; Liu, Fang 2 ; Zhang, Zong-yao 3 ; Xie, Yi 5 ; Wei, Chao-xian 2 ; Liu, Bei-bei 2 ; Gao, Zhi-qiang 6 ; Lin, Bi-gui 1 ; Chen, Xi-chao 3 ;
作者机构： 1.Fine Chem Guizhou Univ, Ctr R&D, Natl Key Lab Green Pesticide, Key Lab Green Pesticide & Agr Bioengn,Minist Educ, Guiyang 550025, Peoples R China
2.Chinese Acad Trop Agr Sci, Inst Environm & Plant Protect, Haikou 571101, Peoples R China
3.Minist Ecol & Environm, South China Inst Environm Sci, Guangzhou 510655, Peoples R China
4.Huazhong Agr Univ, Coll Resources & Environm, Wuhan 430070, Hubei, Peoples R China
5.Chinese Acad Trop Agr Sci, Anal & Test Ctr, Haikou 571101, Peoples R China
6.Univ Mississippi, Dept Chem & Biochem, Oxford, MS 38677 USA
7.4 Xueyuan Rd, Haikou 571101, Hainan, Peoples R China
关键词： PCDD/Fs; Probabilistic risk assessment; Monte Carlo stochastic simulation; Triangular fuzzy numbers; Municipal solid -waste incinerator
期刊名称：ECOTOXICOLOGY AND ENVIRONMENTAL SAFETY （ 影响因子：6.8； 五年影响因子：6.9 ）
ISSN： 0147-6513
年卷期： 2024 年 274 卷
页码：
收录情况： SCI
摘要： PCDD/Fs are dioxins produced by waste incineration and pose risks to human health. We aimed to detail the health risks of airborne and soil PCDD/Fs near a municipal solid-waste incinerator (MSWI) for the surrounding population and develop a new model that improves upon existing methods. Thus, we conducted field sampling and then investigated a MSWI in the Pearl River Delta (2016-2018). Our results showed that the carcinogenic and non-carcinogenic risk values of PCDD/Fs exposed to residents in nearby areas were acceptable, with hazard index (HI) values lower than 1.0 and a total carcinogenic risk lower than 1.0E-6. Notably, the results raised concerns regarding higher non-carcinogenic risks in children than in adults. Comparative analysis of the frequency accumulation diagram, accumulated probability risk, and the absolute value of error (delta) between the 95% confidence interval (CI) and the 90% CI of the Monte Carlo stochastic simulation-triangular fuzzy number (MCSS-TFN) and the MCSS model, respectively, demonstrated that the MCSS-TFN exhibited less uncertainty than the MCSS model, regardless of the health risk value of PCDD/Fs in ambient air or in soil. This observation underscores the superiority of the MCSS-TFN model over other models in assessing the health risks associated with PCDD/Fs in situations with limited data. Our new method overcomes the limited dataset size and high uncertainty in assessing the health risks of dioxin substances, providing a more comprehensive understanding of their associated health risks than MCSS models.
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