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Responses of Winter Wheat Yield to Drought in the North China Plain: Spatial-Temporal Patterns and Climatic Drivers

文献类型： 外文期刊

作者： Yang, Jianhua 1 ; Wu, Jianjun 1 ; Liu, Leizhen 1 ; Zhou, Hongkui 5 ; Gong, Adu 1 ; Han, Xinyi 1 ; Zhao, Wenhui 1 ;

作者机构： 1.Beijing Normal Univ, State Key Lab Remote Sensing Sci, Beijing 100875, Peoples R China

2.Beijing Normal Univ, Beijing Key Lab Environm Remote Sensing & Digital, Beijing 100875, Peoples R China

3.Beijing Normal Univ, Fac Geog Sci, Beijing 100875, Peoples R China

4.Beijing Normal Univ, Ctr Drought & Risk Res, Beijing 100875, Peoples R China

5.Zhejiang Acad Agr Sci, Inst Digital Agr, Hangzhou 310021, Peoples R China

关键词： drought responses; climatic drivers; winter wheat; SPEI; predictive discriminant analysis

期刊名称：WATER （ 影响因子：3.103； 五年影响因子：3.229 ）

ISSN：

年卷期： 2020 年 12 卷 11 期

页码：

收录情况： SCI

摘要： Understanding the winter wheat yield responses to drought are the keys to minimizing drought-related winter wheat yield losses under climate change. The research goal of our study is to explore the response patterns of winter wheat yield to drought in the North China Plain (NCP) and then further to study which climatic factors drive the response patterns. For this purpose, winter wheat yield was simulated by the Environmental Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) crop model. Drought was quantified by standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI), and the contributions of the various climatic factors were evaluated using predictive discriminant analysis (PDA) method. The results showed that the responses of winter wheat yield to different time-scale droughts have obvious spatial differences from the north part to the south part in the NCP. Winter wheat yield is more sensitive to the medium (6-9 months) and long (9-12 months) time-scale droughts that occurred in the key growth periods (April and May). The different response patterns of winter wheat yield to the different time-scale droughts are mainly controlled by temperature and water balance (precipitation minus potential evapotranspiration) in winter in the NCP. Compared with the water balance, temperature plays a more important role in driving the response pattern characteristics. These findings can provide a reference on how to reduce drought influences on winter wheat yield in the NCP.

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