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CO2 and temperature dominate the variation characteristics of wheat yield in China under 1.5 degrees C and 2.0 degrees C warming scenarios

文献类型： 外文期刊

作者： Yang, Jianhua 1 ; Tian, Feng 1 ; Zhou, Hongkui 4 ; Wu, Jianjun 1 ; Han, Xinyi 1 ; Shen, Qiu 1 ; Zhao, Bingyu 1 ; Du, Ruohua 1 ; Zhang, Jianhang 1 ;

作者机构： 1.Beijing Normal Univ, State Key Lab Remote Sensing Sci, Beijing 100875, Peoples R China

2.Tianjin Normal Univ, Acad Ecocivilizat Dev Jing Jin Ji Megalopolis, Tianjin 300387, Peoples R China

3.Beijing Normal Univ, Fac Geog Sci, Beijing 100875, Peoples R China

4.Zhejiang Acad Agr Sci, Inst Digital Agr, Hangzhou 310021, Peoples R China

关键词： 1.5 degrees C and 2.0 degrees C warming scenarios; China wheat yield; Influencing factors; Crop model

期刊名称：THEORETICAL AND APPLIED CLIMATOLOGY （ 影响因子：3.4； 五年影响因子：3.5 ）

ISSN： 0177-798X

年卷期： 2023 年

页码：

收录情况： SCI

摘要： Under the 1.5 degrees C and 2.0 degrees C warming scenarios, few studies have explored the different influences of CO2, temperature, and precipitation on wheat yield in China. Hence, we analyzed the different influences of above factors on wheat yield after analyzing the wheat yield change. Results show that (1) the wheat yield of China would increase under the two warming scenarios. The spring wheat yield of the Northeast Spring Wheat Region (DB_S) and the Northwest Spring Wheat Region (XB_S) would increase more than that in the other two spring wheat-planting subregions. The winter wheat yield of the Southwest Winter Wheat Region (XN_W) and Middle and Lower Yangtze Winter Wheat Region (CJ_W) would increase more significantly compared with that in the other three winter wheat-planting subregions. (2) CO2 fertilization was identified as the main factor leading to a wheat yield increase, with an estimated increase of 12-18% under the 1.5 degrees C warming scenario and 18-21% under the 2.0 degrees C warming scenario. (3) Without considering CO2 fertilization, compared with precipitation, temperature dominated the spatial patterns of the wheat yield responses to climate change. Temperature influence on wheat yield was mainly reflected in the amplitudes of yield increase, while precipitation mainly affected the proportion of yield-increasing area. For wheat-planting regions with less precipitation, such as the North Spring Wheat Region (BB_S) and the Huang-Huai Winter Wheat Region (HH_W), the wheat yield increase caused by precipitation was usually more pronounced. Our findings would help inform policy decisions related to wheat production in China to better cope with future climate warming.

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