文献类型： 外文期刊

作者： Yu, Fangyuan ¹ ; Wu, Zhifeng ¹ ; Shen, Jian ² ; Huang, Jihong ³ ; Groen, Thomas A. ⁴ ; Skidmore, Andrew K. ⁴ ; Ma, Kep ¹ ;

作者机构： 1.Guangzhou Univ, Sch Geog Sci & Remote Sensing, Guangzhou 510006, Peoples R China

2.Guangdong Acad Agr Sci, Inst Agr Resources & Environm, Guangzhou 510640, Peoples R China

3.Chinese Acad Forestry, Inst Forest Ecol Environm & Protect, Key Lab Biodivers Conservat Natl Forestry & Grass, Beijing 100091, Peoples R China

4.Univ Twente, Fac Geoinformat Sci & Earth Observat, Dept Nat Resources, POB 217, NL-7500 AE Enschede, Netherlands

5.Macquarie Univ, Dept Environm Sci, Sydney, NSW 2109, Australia

6.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Bot, State Key Lab Vegetat & Environm Change, Beijing 100093, Peoples R China

关键词： Indicator; Biodiversity; Conservation; Weighted endemism; Range shift; Protected areas

期刊名称：ECOLOGICAL INDICATORS （ 影响因子：4.229； 五年影响因子：4.968 ）

ISSN： 1470-160X

年卷期： 2021 年 126 卷

页码：

收录情况： SCI

摘要： The combination of climate change and land use change may have profound effects on terrestrial biodiversity in more significant ways than either has separately. However, most studies focus largely on the climate change impacts, which hampers our ability to develop appropriate conservation strategies in a dramatically changing world. Here, we predict the distributions of 191 Chinese endemic Rhododendron species under future climate and land use change, combining two dispersal constraint scenarios by using a species distribution model. We then assess the vulnerability and extinction risk of these species and identify areas at risk of highest species loss. We find that 52% of the species are predicted to expand and shift their geographic ranges, typically to the northwest and north. The remaining 48% of species are predicted to contract in geographic ranges under the ?perfectdispersal? scenario. And only 7% of Rhododendron are predicted to keep ?still?, while the rest of species shrank with varying degree under the ?no-dispersal? scenario. Species lost particularly at lower elevations, and we also identify four regions at particularly high risk from the impacts of climate and land use change, namely the parallel ridge-and-valley areas of eastern Sichuan, southeastern Tibet, western and eastern Yunnan, southern Shaanxi, plus scattered areas in Guangdong, Hainan and Taiwan. We conclude that Chinese endemic Rhododendron species at lower elevations are highly vulnerable to climate and land use change, facing an elevated risk of extinction under varying scenarios. These species therefore call for more attention and protection. We highlight the critical role of endemic Rhododendron species as good indicators for measuring, evaluating and understanding the effectiveness of our biodiversity conservation efforts. Our work provides insight into the status, trends and threats regarding endemic Rhododendron species, identifying risks and prioritizing conservation in a rapidly changing world.