Predicting current and future potential distributions of the greater bandicoot rat (Bandicota indica) under climate change conditions
文献类型： 外文期刊
作者： Lin, Siliang 2 ; Yao, Dandan 2 ; Jiang, Hongxue 2 ; Qin, Jiao 2 ; Feng, Zhiyong 1 ;
作者机构： 1.Guangdong Acad Agr Sci, Plant Protect Res Inst, Key Lab Green Prevent & Control Fruits & Vegetable, South China Minist Agr & Rural Affairs,Guangdong P, Guangzhou 510640, Peoples R China
2.Guangdong Acad Agr Sci, Plant Protect Res Inst, Key Lab Green Prevent & Control Fruits & Vegetable, South China Minist Agr & Rural Affairs,Guangdong P, Guangzhou, Peoples R China
关键词： Asia; crop losses; ecological niche models; MaxEnt; rodent control; suitable habitat
期刊名称：PEST MANAGEMENT SCIENCE （ 影响因子：4.1； 五年影响因子：4.4 ）
ISSN： 1526-498X
年卷期： 2023 年
页码：
收录情况： SCI
摘要： BACKGROUND: Rodent infestation is a global problem. Rodents cause huge harm to agriculture, forestry, and animal husbandry around the world and spread various zoonoses. In this study, we simulated the potentially suitable habitats of Bandicota indica and predicted the impact of future climate change on its distribution under different socio-economic pathway scenarios of CMIP6 using a parameter-optimized maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model.RESULTS: The average area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) value (0.958 +/- 0.006) after ten repetitions proved the high accuracy of the MaxEnt model. Model results show that the annual mean temperature (>= 15.93 C-degrees), isothermality (28.52-80.49%), annual precipitation (780.13-3863.13 mm), precipitation of the warmest quarter (>= 204.37 mm), and nighttime light (>= 3.38) were important limiting environmental variables for the distribution of B. indica. Under current climate conditions, the projected potential suitable habitats for B. indica were mainly in India, China, Myanmar, Thailand, and Vietnam, which cover a total area of 301.70 x 10(4) km(2). The potentially suitable areas of B. indica in the world will expand under different future climate change scenarios by 1.61-17.65%.CONCLUSIONS: These results validate the potential influence of climate change on the distribution of B. indica and aid in understanding the linkages between B. indica niches and the relevant environment, thereby identifying urgent management areas where interventions may be necessary to develop feasible early warning and prevention strategies to protect against this rodent's spread.(c) 2023 Society of Chemical Industry.
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