文献类型： 外文期刊

作者： Li, Linchao ¹ ; Wang, Bin ⁴ ; Feng, Puyu ⁷ ; Lu, Chaoqun ³ ; Jagermeyr, Jonas ⁸ ; Asseng, Senthold ¹¹ ; Luo, Jing-Jia ¹² ; Harrison, Matthew Tom ¹³ ; He, Qinsi ¹⁴ ; Liu, Ke ¹³ ; Liu, De Li ⁴ ; Li, Yi ¹⁶ ; Feng, Hao ² ; Yang, Guijun ¹⁷ ; Zhao, Chunjiang ¹⁸ ; Siddique, Kadambot H. M. ¹⁹ ; Tian, Hanqin ²¹ ; Yu, Qiang ² ;

作者机构： 1.Inner Mongolia Agr Univ, Coll Agron, Hohhot 010019, Peoples R China

2.Northwest A&F Univ, Coll Nat Resources & Environm, State Key Lab Soil Eros & Dryland Farming Loess Pl, Yangling 712100, Peoples R China

3.Iowa State Univ, Dept Ecol Evolut & Organismal Biol, Ames, IA USA

4.Wagga Wagga Agr Inst, NSW Dept Primary Ind, Wagga Wagga, NSW 2650, Australia

5.Western Sydney Univ, Hawkesbury Inst Environm, Richmond, NSW, Australia

6.Charles Sturt Univ, Gulbali Inst Agr Water & Environm, Wagga Wagga, NSW 2650, Australia

7.China Agr Univ, Coll Land Sci & Technol, Beijing 100193, Peoples R China

8.NASA Goddard Inst Space Studies, New York, NY USA

9.Columbia Univ, Ctr Climate Syst Res, New York, NY USA

10.Leibniz Assoc, Potsdam Inst Climate Impacts Res PIK, Potsdam, Germany

11.Tech Univ Munich, HEF World Agr Syst Ctr, Sch Life Sci, Dept Life Sci Engn, Freising Weihenstephan, Germany

12.Nanjing Univ Informat Sci & Technol, Inst Climate & Applicat Res ICAR, Nanjing 210044, Peoples R China

13.Univ Tasmania, Tasmanian Inst Agr, Newnham Dr, Launceston, Tas 7248, Australia

14.Univ Technol Sydney, Fac Sci, Sch Life Sci, POB 123, Broadway, NSW 2007, Australia

15.Univ New South Wales, Climate Change Res Ctr, Sydney, NSW 2052, Australia

16.Northwest A&F Univ, Coll Water Resources & Architectural Engn, Yangling 712100, Peoples R China

17.Changan Univ, Coll Geol Engn & Geomat, Xian 710054, Peoples R China

18.Beijing Acad Agr & Forestry Sci, Informat Technol Res Ctr, Key Lab Quantitat Remote Sensing Agr, Minist Agr & Rural Affairs, Beijing 100097, Peoples R China

19.Univ Western Australia, UWA Inst Agr, Perth, WA 6001, Australia

20.Univ Western Australia, UWA Sch Agr & Environm, Perth, WA 6001, Australia

21.Boston Coll, Schiller Inst Integrated Sci & Soc, Dept Earth & Environm Sci, Chestnut Hill, MA 02467 USA

期刊名称：ONE EARTH （ 影响因子：15.3； 五年影响因子：19.2 ）

ISSN： 2590-3330

年卷期： 2025 年 8 卷 6 期

页码：

收录情况： SCI

摘要： Enhancing food-system resilience is critical in the face of increasing climate variability that threatens food security. Large-scale climate oscillations are key drivers of climate conditions that disrupt agricultural productivity. However, how such effects are shifting under greenhouse warming remains unclear. Here, we integrate machine learning with process-based crop models to quantify changes in climate-oscillation-driven yield variability under warming scenarios. We find that climate change increases the dominance of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) in the Northern Hemisphere and the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the Southern Hemisphere, exposing an additional 5.1%-12% of global croplands to climate oscillation shocks. Negative NAO and El Nino events are projected to cause simultaneous yield losses of 2.0%-8.4% across multiple breadbaskets, while opposite phases provide weaker benefits, indicating asymmetric impacts and greater food security risks. We highlight the importance of incorporating shifting teleconnections into early-warning systems and targeted adaptation strategies to enhance global food-system resilience.